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Bank of Canada Outlook - Rate Alert
Check out the article and rate specials! RATE ALERT UPDATE Bank RatesTermOUR RATES 3.00 % Prime Rate 3.00 % 3.00 % 5 YEAR VARIABLE 2.80 % 3.35 % 1 YEAR CLOSED 2.74 % 3.60 % 2 YEAR CLOSED 2.74 % 4.15 % 3 YEAR CLOSED 2.89 % 4.34 % 4 YEAR CLOSED 3.09 % 4.99 % 5 YEAR CLOSED - 30 Day 3.24 % 5.29 % 5 YEAR CLOSED - 90 Day 3.29 % 5.69 % 5 YEAR CLOSED - 120 Day 3.29 % *Note: Rates are subject to change without notice and OAC. Please contactus for more information BoC Hints at “Withdrawal of…Stimulus” The Bank of Canada held the line today and left the country’s pace-setting overnight rate at 1% - ensuring prime holds at 3%. The news, however, is not what the BoC did, but what it hinted at doing. Governor Mark Carney and co. jostled expectations in their prepared statement, which said: Overall, economic momentum in Canada is slightly firmer than the Bank had expected in January. The economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013. The profile for inflation is expected to be somewhat firmer than anticipated. Europe is expected to emerge slowly from recession in the second half of 2012 In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate. This last point, in particular, has put the bond market on edge. As of this writing, 5-year yields are up sevenbasis points since this news broke, and up 10bps on the day. (Bond yields lead fixed mortgage rates.) Prior to this morning’s announcement, the market expected the Bank of Canada to move rates in early 2013. We could now start seeing some economists shift rate hike predictions to Q4 of this year. BMO has already moved up its forecast by six months to year-end 2012, according to BNN. The BoC will still want to see more data before pulling the trigger, however. Canada remains tightly constrained by cautious U.S. growth, and that growth has had a funny habit of disappointing after optimistic spurts in the spring. We also have the same contingent of Eurozone countries still battling ongoing solvency fears. Pending the next few months of domestic data, the storylines in the U.S. and Europe have the potential to continue weighing down Canadian rates. For now, today’s BoC decision to leave the overnight rate at 1% means that prime rate should remain at 3.00%. The nextBank of Canadarate meeting is June 5. Please contact me directly for free no obligation rate lock or full pre-approval Regards, Derek F. MacLean, Senior Mortgage Agent W: (613) 627-1045 C: (613) 304-7931 Email Us | www.mortgagesinthecapital.com Apply Now
CREA Updates Resale Housing Market Forecast
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2018 and 2019. Housing market fundamentals remain strong in many parts of the country. Nonetheless, many housing markets continue to struggle in the face of policy headwinds.
The new mortgage stress test announced last October had been expected to cause homebuyers to rush purchases in advance of the new rules coming into effect in January and for the pull-forward of sales activity to result in fewer transactions in the first half of 2018.
Evidence suggests the policy response was stronger than expected, with seasonally adjusted national home sales last December having surged to the highest level ever recorded before dropping sharply in early 2018.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales figures for March, April and May are typically among the most active months in any given year. Combined sales fell to a nine-year low for the three-month period. The seasonally adjusted trend suggests sales momentum has not yet begun to rally.
Interest rates are widely expected to rise further this year and next. Home sales activity is nonetheless still expected to strengthen modestly in the second half of 2018 as housing market uncertainty diminishes.
Taking these factors into account, the national sales forecast has been revised downward and is now projected to decline by 11% to 459,900 units this year. The decrease almost entirely reflects weaker sales in B.C. and Ontario amid heightened housing market uncertainty, provincial policy measures, high home prices, ongoing supply shortages and this years new mortgage stress test.
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1¼ per cent
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent.
Global economic activity remains broadly on track with the Banks April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast. Recent data point to some upside to the outlook for the US economy. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty about trade policies is dampening global business investment and stresses are developing in some emerging market economies. Global oil prices have been higher than assumed in April, in part reflecting geopolitical developments.
Inflation in Canada has been close to the 2 per cent target and will likely be a bit higher in the near term than forecast in April, largely because of recent increases in gasoline prices. Core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to potential. As usual, the Bank will look through the transitory impact of fluctuations in gasoline prices.
In Canada, economic data since the April MPR have, on balance, supported the Banks outlook for growth around 2 per cent in the first half of 2018. Activity in the first quarter appears to have been a little stronger than projected. Exports of goods were more robust than forecast, and data on imports of machinery and equipment suggest continued recovery in investment. Housing resale activity has remained soft into the second quarter, as the housing market continues to adjust to new mortgage guidelines and higher borrowing rates. Going forward, solid labour income growth supports the expectation that housing activity will pick up and consumption will continue to contribute importantly to growth in 2018.