Brian Matthey

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems edged up a further 0.5% on a month-over-month basis in June 2026. This builds on the 5.5% jump recorded in May and the 0.9% increase in April, placing national activity some 7% above where it stood in March.

“June’s housing numbers continued to build momentum following the late start to the year in May, with virtually every metric moving in the right direction,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Looking ahead, fixed mortgage rates have eased from their peak in April, and rate hikes from the Bank of Canada this year are much less likely than they were just a month ago. This is good news for borrowers. Additionally, home prices are no longer falling in most of the markets where they were previously, which had likely been keeping a lot of buyers waiting on the sidelines. As such, we continue to expect the second half of the year to be quite a bit more active than the first half, similar to sales activity in 2024 and 2025.”

June Highlights:

• National home sales edged up 0.5% month-over-month.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 0.9% above June 2025.
• The number of newly listed properties declined 1.3% on a month-over-month basis.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged month-over-month and was down 3.6% on a year-over-year basis.
• The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 0.5% on a year-over-year basis in June 2026.

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike. There are still important risks and uncertainties related to the war in the Middle East and US trade policy.

Since the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), global economic prospects have been dented by higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. At the same time, the build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) is supporting economic activity in a growing number of countries. Oil prices are still lower than their peak in April but the situation in the Middle East remains volatile. The path for global inflation is highly dependent on how the conflict unfolds.

The US economy is growing at about 2½%, mostly because of strong consumption and booming AI investment. China’s economy is expanding solidly thanks to robust exports. Economic activity in the euro area has been weighed down by high energy prices, but is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year if energy prices come down as anticipated.

The Bank projects global GDP growth will slow to 2¾% in 2026, mostly because of the effects of the Middle East conflict, and recover to around 3¼% in 2027 and 2028.

Increased supply and slower demand have eased asking rents, bringing Canada’s major rental markets toward more balanced conditions. However, trends vary by segment, including building age and rent level. Conditions are expected to continue easing as new units take longer to be absorbed and competition from rental condominium apartments increases. This is creating short-term imbalances in newer, higher-priced segments.

Highlights

• Asking rents declined due to increased supply and slower population growth, while average rents for occupied units continued to rise.
• Vacancy increases are mostly concentrated in new supply, where landlord-provided incentives support absorption.
• Rental markets are easing as new completions take longer to absorb, while competition from rental condominium apartments in certain markets is creating a short-term imbalance between supply and demand in new, higher-priced segments.
• Conditions remain very tight in the lowest rent quartiles in most markets, implying little improvement in affordability.
• Tenant mobility is highest in more expensive units and more limited in lower-rent segments, despite recent gains in turnover.
• Rental demand is expected to grow, even with much lower population growth.