Dave Kondratuk
Mortgage Professional
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Unit 100-99 Scurfield Blvd, Winnipeg, Manitoba
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PARTNERSDave Kondratuk - Mortgage Professional.
Dave helps his clients navigate the complex world of mortgage financing. As a former Realtor Dave is uniquely equipped to walk his clients through the entire home buying experience. He is a member of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) and as a member he is well educated, informed and ethically practicing in an ever changing mortgage financing world.
BLOG / NEWS Updates
Population in Canada: A Monthly Snapshot
ON TRACK IN SOME AREAS, A BUMPY ROAD AHEAD IN OTHERS
Population growth continues to surge.
Mays Labour Force Survey data reported a 3.6% (S.A.A.R.) increase in the 15 year old+ population compared to April.
This 97,600 increase since the release of last months report maintained the trend of robust population growth through 2024 so far, with the last three months averaging growth of 3.7% (S.A.A.R.). Compared to May of last year, Canadas 15+ population is up by almost 1.1 million.
The increase in the labour force population is down by roughly half when compared to Aprils explosive growth numbers, although m/m growth of 3% (S.A.A.R.) is still significantly high, especially when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
A quarter of the year recorded, a quarter of the goal reached.
Canada admitted another 34,785 permanent residents among its major categories in March, totalling 121,620 admissions for the year so far, approximately 25% of the annual goal of 485,000 the federal government set for 2024.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.canada-and-us-economics-.economic-commentary.population-growth.-june-10--2024-.html
Further Rate Cuts on the Horizon: Scotiabank’s Forecast Tables
From Scotiabank
We expect the Bank of Canada to cut by 25bps at each of the next three meetings.
Inflation is on a good downward path though growth in the interest rate-sensitive parts of the economy remains surprisingly strong.
Positive risks to the outlook for growth and inflation remain as interest rates come down. We are particularly mindful of the response in real estate markets and household spending. Any materialization of upside risks would imperil future rate cuts.
Rate cuts have finally begun in Canada. With inflation hopefully on a sustained downward path despite the interest rate-sensitive parts of our economy performing surprisingly well, it is now clear that the Bank of Canada has decided rate relief is necessary. That is great news for borrowers if the Bank of Canada follows through with additional cuts. We think they will, though we remain concerned about upside risks to inflation given rising wages and falling productivity, the surprising strength in consumption, the serial over-stimulation by the federal and provincial governments, and the potential for a housing market rebound. As a result of the latest decision and the communications around that we are changing our Bank of Canada view and now expect that Governor Macklem will cut the policy rate at each of the next three meetings, for a total of 100bps of cuts this year.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-outlook-and-forecast-tables.scotiabank%27s-forecast-tables.2024.june-6--2024.html
NBC BoC Policy Monitor: Price progress = Policy pivot
From National Bank of Canada
In the first rate decision with material uncertainty in a year, the BoC opted lower the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, a decision in line with market expectations and the consensus forecast. This makes the BoC the first G7 central bank to ease policy this year, though the ECB is widely expected to follow suit tomorrow. Citing clear progress in core inflation, in addition to ongoing sub-potential growth and a rebalancing labour market, the press release noted monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive.
The focus now turns to the pacing of cuts in this nascent easing cycle. In the opening statement to the presser, Macklem said its reasonable to expect further easing as long as inflation continues to ease. That puts a July cut squarely in focus and wed be inclined to bet they will ease again at the next meeting. At the same time, wed note that earlier BoC communications indicated that monetary policy easing this year would be gradual. Macklem confirmed this view in the press conference. So although back-to-back cuts may be instituted to start, were skeptical theyll continue at the same pace thereafter. We agree with market expectations that 50 basis points of additional rate relief is appropriate in 2024. In contrast, the consensus sees this marking the start of a more aggressive easing campaign. The median expectation is for a 4% policy rate by year-end. Three more cuts over the last four decisions of the year, isnt a pace of cuts we would characterize as gradual and isnt as likely to materialize barring a more material slowdown in the economy.
The Banks next decision will take place on July 24th. The Summary of Deliberations for todays decision will be released on June 19th.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf