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Michael Dorego
Mortgage Agent
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7676 Woodbine Ave #300, Markham, Ontario
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BLOG / NEWS Updates
Home prices rise for the first time in 11 months
After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI resumed its upward trend (+0.6%) after ten consecutive monthly declines, which saw home prices correct by a total of 8.6%. This turnaround in property prices is due in particular to the rebound in the resale market over the past four months. This recovery is taking place against a backdrop of record demographic growth, which is accentuating the shortage of housing supply on the market. With domestic housing starts falling to their lowest level in three years in May, there is no reason to believe that the shortage of properties on the market will be resolved any time soon. However, the resumption of the monetary tightening cycle by the Bank of Canada in recent weeks and the expected slowdown in economic growth could moderate price growth later this year.
HIGHLIGHTS:
The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.6% in May after seasonal adjustment.
After seasonal adjustment, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Toronto (+1.6%). Winnipeg (+1.5%), Victoria (+1.3%), Edmonton (+1.3%), Quebec City (+1.2%), Montreal (+1.0%), Hamilton (+0.5%) and Calgary (+0.1%). Conversely, prices fell during the month in Halifax (-2.6%), Vancouver (-1.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%).
From May 2022 to May 2023, the composite index fell by 7.6%, a smaller contraction than in the previous month. Price growth in Calgary (8.3%). Edmonton (4.9%) and Quebec City (3.1%) was more than offset by declines in Montreal (-3.0%), Winnipeg (-6.8%), Victoria (-8.4%), Halifax (-8.5%), Vancouver (-8.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-9.5%), Toronto (-10.3%) and Hamilton (-16.8%).
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf
Fourth consecutive monthly increase in home sales in May
On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 5.1% from April to May, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Sales growth continues to be widespread across the country again this month, with the biggest increases seen in P.E.I. (+22.3%), Saskatchewan (+9.2%) and Alberto (+8.0%). Conversely, Nova Scotia (+0.9%) and Manitoba (+1.0%) saw smaller increases.
On the supply side, new listings jumped 6.8% in May, a second consecutive monthly increase.
Overall, supply decreased in Canada as testified by the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) decreasing from 3.3 to 3.1 in May. This remains up from the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis.
The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical overage in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio above average.
Housing starts in Canada decreased in May (-58.9K to 202.5K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), falling short of consensus expectations calling for a 240.0K print. This decline more than offset Aprils 47.8K increase and was the sharpest since December 2021. In urban areas, declines in housing starts were seen in Ontario (-43.1K to 67.7K), British Columbia (-20.1K to 38.2K), Quebec (-6.6K to 22.5K) and the Maritimes (-1.5K to 8.1K). Meanwhile, an increase was registered in the Prairies (+12.6K to 46.0K) on gains in Manitoba (+3.0K to 7.0K) and Alberta (+9.6K to 36.5K) while starts in Saskatchewan (+0.1K to 2.5K) remained essentially unchanged.
The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.6% in May after seasonal adjustment. After seasonal adjustment, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Toronto (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.5%), Victoria (+1.3%), Edmonton (+1.3%). Quebec City (+1.2%), Montreal (+1.0%), Hamilton (+0.5%) and Calgary (+0.1%). Conversely, prices fell during the month in Halifax (-2.6%). Vancouver (-1.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%).
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf
CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report
Recent mortgage market trends
High inflation, rapidly rising interest rates and cooling housing markets across Canada have resulted in decelerating mortgage growth in 2022.
Mortgage activity by non-bank lenders accelerated up until 2022Q3 and has now reached the pace of mortgage growth in the banking industry.
Despite increasing worries around the ability of Canadians to make their mortgage payments on time, mortgages in arrears remained at low levels.
Mortgage borrowers are opting for shorter-term fixed rate mortgages, with fixed-rate 5-year mortgages falling to less than 15% of new mortgages, and variable-rate mortgages dropping to less than 20% of new mortgages.
Housing finance research at a glance
While demand surges, alternative lenders are lending more conservatively as the industry faces shifting investor appetite. Their risk profile remains at relatively low levels.
A larger share of alternative loan mortgage borrowers are renewing their loans in this space as it is increasingly difficult to qualify for a conventional loan.
Interest rate differences are not a significant source of inequality in the housing finance system.
CMHC
