It PAYS to shop around.
Many Canadian homeowners pay too much for their homes because they are not getting the best mortgage financing available in the market.
THE STORY OF TWO BROTHERS
The Story of Two Brothers
This is a story of two brothers each of whom secures a mortgage to buy a $200,000 home. Each earns $70,000 a year and has $60,000 in savings.
The first brother, Brother A believes in the old way of paying off a mortgage, which is as soon as possible. Brother A bites the bullet and secures a 25 year mortgage at the 5 year fixed rate and shells out all $60,000 of his savings as a 30% down payment leaving him zero dollars to invest. This leaves him with a monthly payment of $698.00
Brother B, in contract, subscribes to the new way of mortgage planning, choosing instead to carry a big, long-term mortgage. He secures a 30 year mortgage at a 5 year variable rate and shells out only $40,000 of his savings as a 20% down payment leaving him $20,000 in an investment account (specifically a TFSA, earning annual interest of 8% tax free). This leaves him with a monthly payment of $639.00. Every month he adds the $60 difference to his investment account to earn additional income at 8%.
Results after 5 years
Brother A has a mortgage balance of $120,769.87
Has $0 in savings and investments
Brother B has a mortgage balance of $141,154.15
Has $33,154.15 in savings
Ahead by $13,110.97
The story becomes even more compelling over 15 years.
Brother A has a mortgage balance of $70,728.18
Has $0 in savings and investments
Brother B has a mortgage balance of $95,309
Has $87,039 in savings and investments
Ahead by $62,458
More importantly Brother B has less than a year left before his savings and investments exceeds his balance owing on his mortgage and therefore if he wished he could stop making mortgage payments and use his savings to payoff the mortgage. Additionally saving him $75,358 in mortgage payments.
Construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Montréal continue to climb
In October, the value of permits for both single-family and multi-family dwellings increased in the CMAs of Montral and Toronto. However, in the Vancouver CMA, both residential components fell, offsetting the gains in September.
Municipalities in the CMA of Montral issued $538.1 million in permits for multi-family dwellings in October, higher than in Toronto ($409.2 million) and Vancouver ($330.6 million). In regards to single-family homes, Toronto registered $451.3 million in permits, followed by Vancouver ($148.1 million) and Montral ($122.4 million).
The Montral CMA issued permits approving the construction of 2,956 new units, stemming mainly from multi-family dwellings (2,720). October marked the fifth consecutive month where the number of units approved for multi-family dwellings exceeded 2,000. Vancouver approved the construction of 1,860 new units for multi-family homes, while Toronto (1,691) approved fewer despite having a higher value for the component.
Housing Market Digest by Will Dunning, Economist for Mortgage Professionals Canada
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) now requires that all residential mortgages by federally-regulated lenders must be stress-tested, at two percentage points above the contract interest rate (or the 5- year posted rate, if that is higher). In combination with the requirements for mortgage insurance, about 90% of all new mortgages will be tested.
This can be expected to reduce housing activity by 10-15%. It is on top of the impact from recent rises for mortgage interest rates (another 5-10% drop in activity). The combined 15-25% drop in housing activity will affect the broader economy.
In two years, employment could be 150,000-250,000 lower than it would otherwise be. There is a risk that house prices will fall. In a modern economy, a sustained drop in house prices is one of the most dangerous things that can happen: as happened in the US a decade ago, falling house prices can turn into widespread economic decline.
Resale activity recovered a bit more in September, to 492,900, due to partial rebounds in BC and Ontario. Activity is flat in most other areas.
CREAs House Price Index was flat in September. The year-over-year change is now 10.7% (down from the peak of 19.7% that was seen in April).
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) was 55.7% in September, slightly above the balanced market threshold of 51%. This indicator points to an outlook for stable prices (at worst). But, as noted, OSFIs stress test policy creates a risk of falling prices.
We should, in general, expect that resale activity will trend upwards over time, because the population is growing and the housing inventory is expanding. Therefore, it is useful to look at sales on a per capita basis. Recent activity is below the long-term average.