AGENT LICENSE ID
M22004373
BROKERAGE LICENSE ID
13023
Sarah Rooney
Mortgage Agent Level 2
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33 Dupont St. E, Suite 300, Waterloo, Ontario, N2J 2G8
BLOG / NEWS Updates
CMHC: Mortgage renewal wave strains some regions and borrowers
Mortgages remain a hot topic in corporate boardrooms, around policy tables and even during family dinners. Canada is standing right in the middle of the major mortgage renewal waveone that experts have long warned about. In the midst of this mortgage renewal wave, are Canadian homeowners able to keep up with their mortgage payments at higher rates during a time of economic uncertainty and rising unemployment?
The national mortgage arrears ratethe share of mortgage consumers who have missed payments for 90 days or morehas been increasing. However, this trend is nuanced, and its interpretation has led to some confusion. The fact is that Canadian homeowners are facing 2 distinct financial realities. On one side, are emerging risks, while on the other, mortgage arrears remain low.
On one hand, there are clear signs of household financial strain in regions like Toronto and Vancouver, where arrears are projected to continue increasing steadily. Additionally, certain groups of borrowers across the country are showing greater vulnerability than others. For these groupsespecially the pandemic-era first-time homebuyersthe financial pressure is much more evident.
On the other hand, Canadian homeowners have proven to be remarkably resilient given the challenges theyve had to navigate. While the increase in mortgage arrears has been significant (+7 bps between 2023 Q3 and 2025 Q3), arrears remain historically low.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/mortgage-renewal-wave-strains-some-regions-borrowers
Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report - January 2026
US tariffs and the unpredictability of future trade arrangements are disrupting the Canadian economy. Growth in Canada is expected to remain modest, while inflation stays close to 2%.
The Canadian economic outlook is little changed since the October Report. Canada continues to adjust to a new trade landscape. Affected businesses are reconfiguring their trade and seeking new suppliers and markets. As this adjustment proceeds, capital will start being reallocated and some workers will shift into new roles. This adjustment will take time, and growth will be restrained through the transition.
Uncertainty remains high. The world is becoming more fragmented, and geopolitical risks are elevated. For Canada, the future of trade in North America is an important uncertainty.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2026-01-28/overview/
NBC Housing Market Monitor - Canada: A tale of two geographies for the residential market in 2025
Summary
Home transactions totalled 470.3K in 2025, a 1.9% decline compared to 2024 but a stronger year than 2023.
On a monthly basis, transactions were down 2.7% from November to December, a third decline in four months that is difficult to explain given recent interest rate cuts and improvements in the labour market.
New listings declined by 2.0% from November to December, a fourth consecutive decline.
Active listings edged down 0.5% from November to December, the fifth decline in six months.
Market conditions loosened slightly during the month but continued to indicate a balanced market compared to the historical average. Still, the balanced market conditions at the national level largely reflect soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers.
Housing starts ended 2025 on a strong note, rising for the second consecutive month to reach 282.4K, their highest level in five months and well above consensus expectations. In 2025, there was a total of 259.0K housing starts nationwide, an increase of 5.6% compared to 2024. This makes it the third-strongest year on record for the new construction market after 2021 and 2022.
The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index remained stable from November to December after seasonal adjustment. Six of the eleven CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.9%), Edmonton (+1.2%), Winnipeg (+1.1%), Calgary (+0.7%), Vancouver (+0.2%) and Quebec City (+0.1%). Conversely, prices declined in Hamilton (-1.8%), Halifax (- 1.0%), Victoria (-0.8%), Toronto (-0.5%) and Montreal (-0.2%). From December 2024 to December 2025, the composite index declined by 3.5%.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf
