Paul Lioukras, CPA, AMP

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The major shift in direction of US trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations. Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally. Instead, the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy. In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope. Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canadas economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year. Many other trade policy scenarios are possible. There is also an unusual degree of uncertainty about the economic outcomes within any scenario, since the magnitude and speed of the shift in US trade policy are unprecedented. Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the United States, the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the euro area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Chinas economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly. Financial markets have been roiled by serial tariff announcements, postponements and continued threats of escalation. This extreme market volatility is adding to uncertainty. Oil prices have declined substantially since January, mainly reflecting weaker prospects for global growth. Canadas exchange rate has recently appreciated as a result of broad US dollar weakness. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/04/fad-press-release-2025-04-16/

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations was conducted through an online panel from January 29 to February 19, 2025. Follow-up phone interviews took place from February 20 to 25, 2025. This period was characterized by pervasive uncertainty created by the sudden and unpredictable shifts in US trade policy. Overview Overall, results of the first-quarter 2025 survey show that the escalating trade conflict with the United States is damaging consumer sentiment. Confidence in the labour market has weakened sharply. This is because many consumersnotably those working in sectors that are highly dependent on tradeare worried about losing their job. In this context, consumers have also become more pessimistic about their financial health. Although consumption plans had been improving over several quarters, consumers now intend to spend more cautiously given the uncertainty around the trade conflict. In addition, elevated housing costs and the high prices of many goods and services continued to weigh on households spending plans. Consumers expect the trade conflict to lead to a higher cost of living. This is reflected in their short-term inflation expectations, which rose in the first quarter of 2025. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/04/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-first-quarter-of-2025/