Paul Lioukras, CPA, AMP

Home sales fell by 4.8% between February and March, the fourth consecutive monthly drop in a row for this indicator. Following this decline, the number of transactions was 20% below the level in November last year, reversing last years rebound following the central banks interest rate cuts. Milder weather in March, particularly in the eastern provinces, failed to stimulate the housing market, as sales declined in 8 of the countrys 10 provinces, with P.E.I. (+2.7%) and Saskatchewan (+0.3%) being the exceptions. Newfoundland (-12.9%), New Brunswick (-8.7%), Ontario (-7.1%), B.C. (-7.0%), and Manitoba (-5.2%) experienced above-average declines in sales, while Nova Scotia (-4.5%), Quebec (-3.1%), and Alberta (-0.6%) experienced smaller drops. There is no doubt that the ongoing trade war with the U.S. has weighed on consumer confidence and the housing market across the country, with potential buyers waiting for more economic visibility before acting. On the supply side, new listings rebounded 3.0% from February to March following an 11.9% decrease the previous month. Combined with the decrease in sales, active listings increased by 3.3% during the month, the third monthly advance in a row despite still elevated cancelled listings in March. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the fourth consecutive month, jumping from 4.7 in February to 5.1 in March, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding Covid). Meanwhile, market conditions loosened sharply during the month and moved from slightly tighter than their historical average to looser than average for the first time since June 2019 (excluding Covid). This was mainly due to a sharp softening in market conditions in Ontario and B.C., which are now deep into favourable to buyers territory. All other provinces are still showing tighter than average market conditions. These suppler market conditions have had an impact on prices, with the MLS Home Price Index declining by 1.0% month-over-month and by 2.1% year-over year. On an annual basis, home sales dropped by 9.3% compared to March 2024, thus reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2009. Sales were down in four of the ten provinces, with the biggest decreases in Ontario (-24.6%) and B.C. (-9.6%), while the sharpest increases were observed in P.E.I. (+13.5%), Newfoundland (+9.7%), and Quebec (+9.1%). For the first quarter of 2025, cumulative home sales were down 6.3% compared to the same period in 2024. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf

The Canadian economy ended 2024 strong. However, the escalating trade conflict is diminishing growth prospects. While tariffs are expected to increase price pressures, removing the consumer carbon tax has lowered energy prices. The unpredictability of US trade policy, and the speed and magnitude of the shifts, are making the economic outlook very uncertain. In February and March 2025, the United States repeatedly threatened, imposed and then suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Significant US tariffs remain in place, particularly on steel, aluminum and motor vehicles. Then, on April 2, the United States announced high and broad-based tariffs on nearly all its other trading partners. One week later, on April 9, it reduced most of those tariffs for 90 days to a 10% universal rate. This universal tariff does not apply to Canada and Mexico. There is a great deal of uncertainty around what will happen next. Trade policy uncertainty is making it difficult for households, businesses and governments to plan. It is also difficult to know how the tariffs will affect the economy. Consequently, it is unusually challenging to project economic activity and consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Canada and globally. Instead of a base-case projection, this Report contains two illustrative scenarios that consider different US trade policies. In addition, the Risks section focuses on the uncertainty related to how tariffs will impact the economy. The Bank of Canada has chosen this approach to better manage the risks in this highly uncertain environment. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2025-04-16/