Anna Barone

Highlights

• Canada’s supply gap is broadly unchanged from last year. Relative to our 2025 estimate, the supply gaps narrowed in Toronto and Calgary and remained unchanged in Vancouver. However, the supply gaps have widened in Ottawa and Montréal.
• Construction is expected to slow faster than demand, leaving Canada short of the roughly 417,000 to 469,000 homes needed each year to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036.
• Not building enough during the current housing downturn is a key risk. Near-term affordability improvements since 2023 may be difficult to sustain if housing construction does not keep pace with future demand. Although rental market conditions have eased, ownership supply is facing significant challenges.

Canada's housing market is entering a new phase. We see slower population growth, more balanced rental markets, improving affordability and elevated housing completions in many cities. However, the key risk is that Canada does not build enough during today’s market softening and falls short of housing when demand strengthens again. That would leave Canada significantly behind the 417,000 to 469,000 homes needed each year to restore pre-pandemic affordability by 2036.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report