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502013
Chris Simpson
Mortgage Broker
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109 - 3550 Saanich Road, Victoria, British Columbia
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BLOG / NEWS Updates
What is your Best Rate?
Recently I had some good friends of mine ask what the going interest rates are and more
importantly what is the best rate could I get them. Obviously not an uncommon question in my
line of work but this is no longer a quick and easy question. Last year if I wanted to be a little
cheeky (depending on who was asking) Id respond with a question of my own, like whats your
credit score? 9 times out of 10 there would be an awkward pause and blank stare followed by a
does it matter? Yes, yes it does. Once we got through that portion of the conversation Id then
begin talking about the rates. But that was 2016, and now that it is 2017 the rate game has
become a little like the did you see what Trump just tweeted conversation that is making people
yearn for the days of old.
Last October Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced significant changes* to our industry
which included new securitization rules and qualification requirements. These changes forced
lenders to adjust their pricing models to account for the increased costs of doing business and
those costs have been handed down to you the borrower. Prior to that announcement I had a
nice simple rate sheet that told me what every lender was offering. Now my rate sheet could
easily be 5 pages long and it would still be incomplete. Credit scores were once the driving
factor in your interest rate, now Mortgage Brokers should be asking you a laundry list of
questions to determine what mortgage is best suited for you long before they tell you the best
rates.
Here are some questions you need to be prepared to answer before you can start asking about
the interest rate. Is this a purchase or refinance? What is the loan to value percentage? What
term and amortization would you like? What type of property are you wanting to
mortgage? Can you prove your income? Can you stomach the idea of a very large penalty if you
need to break the term? These are just a few of the questions your Mortgage Broker needs to
ask when you to properly evaluate what the best rate for you is.
Do you want to know where you fit into the new world of mortgage rates? Please give me a call
or send me an email and I would be happy to help.
*Industry Changes: Department of Finance and Article from the Globe and Mail
Mortgage Tip: Do you know what is on your credit report? Check your report for free.
Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.
The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise.
Highlights:
On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton.
From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%).
Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year.
Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market.
Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond.
Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canadas target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Feds objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target.
Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China.
Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last.
Source: Scotiabank Economics
