Brian Matthey

From National Bank of Canada Summary Some forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, had high hopes of an economic recovery and a stabilization of the unemployment rate in the second half of the year, in the wake of interest rate cuts. For several months now, we have been arguing that, although interest rates are starting to come down, monetary policy is far too restrictive for this recovery and stabilization to occur, and recent economic data bears this out. With the Canadian economy stagnating in June and July, the 2.8% growth expected in Q3 by the Bank of Canada is now virtually unattainable. As a result, GDP per capita continues its downward trend that began in 2022, illustrating the fact that the economy continues to grow below potential and that excess supply continues to increase. Not only do companies seem to have an excess of inventories, they also seem to have an excess of workers. For now, this is limited to a hiring freeze at the macro level, as evidenced by average job gains of just 6K per month over the past three months. Those trying to enter the job market - young people and newcomers - are the main victims of Canadas weak hiring climate. With widespread inflation a thing of the past in Canada, we believe the door is wide open for the Bank of Canada to return its policy rate to neutral (between 2.5% and 3.0%) as soon as possible. In the meantime, the damage to the labour market could be greater than necessary. We anticipate economic growth of just 0.9% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025, which would translate into an unemployment rate of around 7.4% by mid-2025. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/mensuel/monthly-economic-monitor-canada.pdf

From National Bank of Canada For the third time in as many meetings, the Bank of Canada lowered the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, a decision in line with the consensus and market expectations. The rate reduction brings the policy rate to 4.25%, the lowest since January 2023. The move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 125 bps below the Federal Reserves (based on their upper bound target), the most since 2000 (although that gap will narrow in September). Meanwhile, balance sheet normalization will continue as expected. Here are additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference: Driving the decision to cut was continued easing in broad inflationary pressures and excess supply in the economy [putting] downward pressure on inflation. Once again, forward rate guidance in the press release was vague but the opening statement to the presser reiterated that it is reasonable to expect further cuts if inflation eases in line with their forecast. The statement notes that Q2 growth was stronger than expected but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July. Macklem added they want to see economic growth pick up to absorb slack. The press release highlights that the labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. However, wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity. In the opening statement to the presser, Macklem added they still expect slack in the labour market to slow wage growth. As for inflation there has been continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, with inflation breadth back to historical norms. Although shelter is holding inflation up, it is starting to slow. Reflecting base effects, Macklem added that inflation may bump up later in the year. However, they need to need to increasingly guard against the risk that the economy is too weak, and inflation falls too much.. Bottom Line: With a 25 basis point rate cut all but assured, the focus of todays decision was always going to be on the Banks guidance/stance. Overall, there was very little changed relative to July as Macklem reiterated it is still reasonable to expect further rate cuts (as long as inflation cooperates). At the margin, there appears to be a bit more confidence on the inflation outlook as shelter prices are seen as starting to slow. And as we got a sense of in July, they increasingly want to guard against too much slack and inflation undershooting over the projection horizon. They therefore need growth to pick up. What does it mean for the meetings ahead? To us, the BoCs base case outlook is for continued 25 basis points cuts at each of the remaining meetings in 2024 (and likely well into 2025 too). However, there is a growing focus on downside inflation/economic risks which should keep markets pricing some probability of a larger-than-25 basis point cut. Thats appropriate in our view given the balance of risks in the labour market and on the growth outlook. The intermeeting period will offer a wealth of information to inform the near-term rate path as were due to receive two employment reports (including one on Friday), two CPI reports, a read on July GDP and a Business Outlook Survey. Undoubtedly, it will be jobs and inflation data that will be most influential. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf