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BLOG / NEWS Updates
NBC Housing Market Monitor: Housing market remained sluggish in September
Home sales edged up 1.9% between August and September, a third increase in four months.
On the supply side, new listings jumped 4.9% from August to September, the eighth advance in nine months and the largest increase since July 2023. As a result, they are now at their highest level since February 2022.
Active listings edged down 0.5% in September from their highest level since March 2020, the second decrease in three months. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) decreased from 4.2 to 4.1 during the month, a level roughly back in line with its pre-pandemic level.
Market conditions tightened marginally in September and remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were roughly balanced in B.C. and softer than average in Ontario.
Housing starts increased 10.8K in September to 223.8K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result below the median economist forecast calling for a 235.0K print. The monthly increase was solely driven by a rise in urban starts (+11K to 210.0K), which were mainly supported by the multi-family segment (+8.6K to 163.4K) while the single-family segment was up marginally (+2.4K to 46.6K). Starts were up in Calgary (+4.4K to 24.3K) and Vancouver (+3.0K to 23.4K) but declined in Toronto (-4.2K to 20.5K) and Montral (-2.1K to 13.0K). At the provincial level, the increases in total starts were registered in British Columbia (+9.3K to 44.0K), Ontario (+4.1K to 64.6K) and Saskatchewan (+2.6K to 6.1K), while the most notable declines were seen in Alberta (-1.5K to 46.8K), and Qubec (-1.1K to 40.3K).
The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.5% from August to September after adjustment for seasonal effects. Eight of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Montreal (+2.4%), Winnipeg (+1.8%), Victoria (+1.2%), Edmonton (+1.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.9%), Halifax (+0.8%), Calgary (+0.5%) and Toronto (+0.3%). Conversely, declines occurred in Quebec City (-0.9%), Hamilton (-0.6%) and Vancouver (-0.2%).
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf
CREA National Statistics: Canadian Home Sales Edge Up Again Following Third Interest Rate Cut
Following the Bank of Canadas third interest rate cut of the year, national home sales increased slightly in September compared to August. This follows a similar pattern of gains recorded in the months following the first two rate cuts.
Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems climbed 1.9% on a month-over-month basis in September 2024, reaching their highest level since July 2023. The national increase was led by the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal and Quebec City, as well as Greater Vancouver and Victoria.
Sales gains are now three for three in the months following interest rate cuts, which is a trend even though the increases werent headline-grabbing, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. That said, with the pace of rate cuts now expected to be much faster than previously thought, its possible some buyers may choose to hold off on a purchase for now. This could further boost the rebound expected in 2025 at the expense of the last few months of this year.
Highlights:
National home sales rose 1.9% month-over-month in September.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 6.9% above September 2023.
The number of newly listed properties jumped 4.9% month-over-month.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) inched up 0.1 % month-over-month but was still down 3.3% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in September.
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/
CMHC: Fall 2024 Housing Supply Report
Total housing starts in the 6 largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) rose by 4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The level of new construction (68,639 units) was the second strongest since 1990. However, when adjusted for population size, combined housing starts were close to the historical average and werent enough to meet growing demographic demand.
Calgary and Edmonton led the growth in housing starts due to record interprovincial migration in recent years, driven by their lower cost for housing and favourable economic conditions. In contrast, housing starts decreased in Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa.
Apartment starts in the 6 CMAs increased slightly, driven by rental construction. Nearly half of the apartments started in the first half of 2024 were purpose-built rentals the highest share on record. This trend aligns with demographic changes and declining homeownership affordability.
Except for Calgary and Edmonton, condominium apartment starts fell in the first 6 months of 2024 a trend we expect will continue as developers struggle to reach the minimum pre-construction sales needed to start construction. Both investors and end users have significantly reduced their purchases of new condominiums because of the impact of higher interest rates.
Developers prioritized clearing backlogs of projects under construction. As a result, apartment completions increased across the 6 CMAs, setting new records in each one except Montral and Vancouver.
Municipalities and provinces are working actively to increase housing supply and variety, with policies aimed at better meeting the needs of a broad range of buyers and renters.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report
