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Bank of Canada Outlook - Rate Alert
Check out the article and rate specials! RATE ALERT UPDATE Bank RatesTermOUR RATES 3.00 % Prime Rate 3.00 % 3.00 % 5 YEAR VARIABLE 2.80 % 3.35 % 1 YEAR CLOSED 2.74 % 3.60 % 2 YEAR CLOSED 2.74 % 4.15 % 3 YEAR CLOSED 2.89 % 4.34 % 4 YEAR CLOSED 3.09 % 4.99 % 5 YEAR CLOSED - 30 Day 3.24 % 5.29 % 5 YEAR CLOSED - 90 Day 3.29 % 5.69 % 5 YEAR CLOSED - 120 Day 3.29 % *Note: Rates are subject to change without notice and OAC. Please contactus for more information BoC Hints at “Withdrawal of…Stimulus” The Bank of Canada held the line today and left the country’s pace-setting overnight rate at 1% - ensuring prime holds at 3%. The news, however, is not what the BoC did, but what it hinted at doing. Governor Mark Carney and co. jostled expectations in their prepared statement, which said: Overall, economic momentum in Canada is slightly firmer than the Bank had expected in January. The economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013. The profile for inflation is expected to be somewhat firmer than anticipated. Europe is expected to emerge slowly from recession in the second half of 2012 In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate. This last point, in particular, has put the bond market on edge. As of this writing, 5-year yields are up sevenbasis points since this news broke, and up 10bps on the day. (Bond yields lead fixed mortgage rates.) Prior to this morning’s announcement, the market expected the Bank of Canada to move rates in early 2013. We could now start seeing some economists shift rate hike predictions to Q4 of this year. BMO has already moved up its forecast by six months to year-end 2012, according to BNN. The BoC will still want to see more data before pulling the trigger, however. Canada remains tightly constrained by cautious U.S. growth, and that growth has had a funny habit of disappointing after optimistic spurts in the spring. We also have the same contingent of Eurozone countries still battling ongoing solvency fears. Pending the next few months of domestic data, the storylines in the U.S. and Europe have the potential to continue weighing down Canadian rates. For now, today’s BoC decision to leave the overnight rate at 1% means that prime rate should remain at 3.00%. The nextBank of Canadarate meeting is June 5. Please contact me directly for free no obligation rate lock or full pre-approval Regards, Derek F. MacLean, Senior Mortgage Agent W: (613) 627-1045 C: (613) 304-7931 Email Us | www.mortgagesinthecapital.com Apply Now
Canada's Manufacturing heavily impacted in March
Manufacturing shipments fell 9.2% in March after climbing 0.4% the prior month. This result was more than double the drop expected by consensus (-4.5%). Lower sales were registered in 17 of the 21 industries surveyed, including transportation (-26.5%), petroleum and coal products (-32.2%), and plastics/rubber products (-10.9%). Alternatively, shipments increased for food manufacturing (+8.2%) and paper manufacturing (+8.4%). With the price effect removed, total factory sales decreased 8.3% m/m, while inventories grew 0.8%. As a result, the real inventory-to-sales ratio rose from 1.56 to 1.72, a bad sign for future production.
Manufacturing sales came in much worse than expected in March, matching their largest one-month decline on record (December 2008). Sales retraced all the way back to their level in June 2016. It should come as no surprise that disruptions from COVID-19 were the chief cause of the decline. Indeed, 78.3% of manufacturing businesses reported being impacted by the pandemic. Transportation saw a significant decline owing to plant closures, while refineries lowered production as demand and prices waned. Not everyone experienced an adverse shock, as evidenced by marked increases for food (groceries) and paper manufacturing (toilet paper) in the month. This will likely be transitory, however, as households rushed to stock up in March. Eight of the ten provinces reported lower sales, with Ontario and Quebec posting the largest declines. All told, given that confinement measures had been in place for only two weeks in March, the April manufacturing picture can be expected to be even worse.
Home sales fell 56.8% from March to April, to the lowest level recorded since the inception of seasonally adjusted data in 1988. The fall was generalized to all the 26 major markets tracked by CREA except Newfoundland and Labrador, where sales rose 13.6%. New listings also fell sharply (-55.7%) but active listings only 8.7%. Therefore, the active-listings-to-sales ratio (our preferred gauge of market conditions) skyrocketed from 4.3 months of inventory in March to 9.2 in April, the largest since the 2008-09 recession.
Source: National Bank of Canada
Another strong increase in the Composite Index in March
In March the TeranetNational Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.6% from the previous month. As was the case in February, this was double the average March rise of the last 10 years. Leading the advance were the markets of Ottawa-Gatineau (1.1%), Vancouver (1.0%) and Toronto (0.9%). Trailing the countrywide average were rises for Hamilton (0.4%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.2%) and Halifax (0.1%). The index for Victoria was essentially flat. Down from the previous month were Calgary (0.1%), Edmonton (0.6%) and Winnipeg (0.8%).
The index for Vancouver has now gone six months without a decline. Its previous run of 14 straight months without a rise seems to be definitely over, especially since the Vancouver resale market has returned to balance as measured by ratio of listings to sales. The index for Victoria has move little over the last seven months. Weakness persists in the Prairies: the indexes for Calgary and Winnipeg have declined in five of the last six months, that for Edmonton in four. In central and eastern Canada the story is different. The index for Ottawa-Gatineau has not declined in any of the last 12 months, that for Toronto in only one and those for Montreal, Hamilton and Halifax in two. All of these last five markets were at a historical peak in March.