Scotiabank: Shifting Priorities at the Bank of Canada
From Scotiabank
As the reduction in inflation takes hold and economic activity slows down, the Bank of Canada seems to be shifting its priority from inflation control to worries about growth.
Using a monetary policy reaction function that estimates the weight on inflation and the output gap over time, we find empirically that that Bank of Canada is now putting more weight on the output gap. This is a break from the last two years in which the estimated weight on inflation dominated that placed on the output gap. Our model suggests that as of 2024Q4, the BoC will focus more on eliminating this economic slack than on fighting inflation.
Our current forecast is that the Bank of Canada cuts by 25 bps at each of the two remaining meetings this year. This work suggests there is a risk that Governor Macklem will be more aggressive than that if he indeed is putting more weight on growth going forward. That would translate into a risk of a 50 bps cut at one of these meetings.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.inflation-reports.boc-rate--october-2--2024.html
TD Canadian Housing Outlook: When the Trickle Becomes a Flood
Report by TD Economics
The Canadian 5-year bond yield has declined over 100 bps since early May, while the Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate 3 times (with two more likely on tap this year). In short, the interest rate environment has significantly improved. Housing market activity is stirring, yet Canadian sales gains have, thus far, trailed what could typically be expected given this rush of rate relief.
We chalk up the surprisingly subdued performance to two factors. The first is the continued strained affordability backdrop. Despite their recent decline, rates remain at levels last seen about 15 years ago. And, the second factor relates to the transparent messaging from central bankers that interest rates are set to fall even further. This is keeping potential buyers temporarily sidelined as they wait for additional cuts. The flat trend in Canadian average home prices since the summer means they havent really been penalized for that choice.
This relative stillness will likely only last so long. Indeed, conditions are in place for a solid pickup in resale activity. Alongside a further steady decline in the BoCs overnight rate, economic growth is likely to regain some traction going forward, and the federal government will roll out meaningful changes to mortgage rules that will support homebuying at the end of the year. Now, first-time homebuyers (and those that purchase new builds) can access 30-year amortizations (instead of 25), thereby lowering their monthly mortgage obligation. Also, the cap on which a buyer can qualify for an insured mortgage has been raised from $1 million to $1.5 million. This means that, for example, a purchaser who buys a detached home in Toronto valued at $1.2 million (the median price in August) could put down about $95k as a downpayment, instead of needing $240k as before.
The federal measures should help unlock powerful gains in Canadian sales and average home prices across Canada in the first half of 2025. However, part of this story will be that some activity that wouldve taken place this year is pushed into 2025, as buyers wait for the new rules to commence before purchasing.
https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook
Economic growth during uncertain times
From the Bank of Canada
In June, we began lowering our policy interest rate. We cut the policy rate at our last three decisions, for a cumulative decline of 75 basis points to 4.25%.
Our most recent decision on September 4th reflected two main considerations.
First, we noted that headline and core inflation had continued to ease as expected. Second, we said that as inflation gets closer to target, we want to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy.
Since then, weve been pleased to see inflation come all the way back to the 2% target. It has been a long journey. Now we want to keep inflation close to the centre of the 1%3% inflation-control band. We need to stick the landing.
What does this mean for interest rates? With the continued progress weve seen on inflation, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate. The timing and pace will be determined by incoming data and our assessment of what those data mean for future inflation.
As always, we try to be as clear as we can about what we are watching as we chart the course for monetary policy.
Economic growth picked up in the first half of this year, and we want to see it strengthen further so that inflation stays close to the 2% target. Some recent indicators suggest growth may not be as strong as we expected. We will be closely watching consumer spending, as well as business hiring and investment.
We will also be looking for continued easing in core inflation, which is still a little above 2%. Shelter cost inflation remains elevated but has started to come down, and we are looking for it to moderate further.
Our next decision is October 23rd. And we will have a revised economic outlook at that time.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/09/economic-growth-during-uncertain-times/