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Data Centers in a Grid Constrained World: Challenges and Opportunities for Canada
Although Canada faces near-term hurdles to its plans to increase AI data center infrastructure due to constrained generation and transmission capacity, the country is not out of the race to attract more of the expected capital expenditures on data centers. Many countries are also dealing with similar grid constraints, which means that regions that can adapt their electricity sectors quickly to enable new large loads to connect to supply in a timely manner will come out ahead.
This situation creates an opportunity for Canada to create conditions that can enable faster data center connection to the grid or to off-grid alternatives. The bring your own generation model that is being explored by Alberta is one such promising tool. Data center companies in Texas are already opting for this option as it is faster than waiting to be connected to the grid. Also, other regions are considering it as a way to shelter ratepayers from the costs of building new generation and transmission for data centers. Ontario, on the other hand, can lean on its advantage as the first jurisdiction in North America to build a small modular reactor (SMR). One way to do this would be to include SMRs in the new corporate power purchase agreements program, which allows companies to procure their own generation. The proposed 40 GW offshore wind farm in Nova Scotia is another potential generation source that could support a data center industry in Atlantic Canada.
Whatever policies and tools are used, protecting ratepayers from electricity price increases will be important for gaining public support. Governments can look to jurisdictions in the U.S. and elsewhere for lessons on what can be done differently to avoid repeating actions that have contributed to rising retail electricity prices in other markets like the PJM Interconnection.
https://economics.td.com/ca-data-centers-and-grid-constraints
Ontario Expanding HST Rebate to Lower the Cost of New Homes in Partnership with the Federal Government
The Ontario government is continuing to lower costs and help families realize the dream of homeownership by removing the full 13 per cent of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) for eligible buyers of new homes valued up to $1 million, for a maximum rebate of $130,000, as part of the upcoming 2026 Budget. This maximum rebate of $130,000 would be maintained for new homes valued up to $1.5 million, and would decrease proportionally from $130,000 at $1.5 million to a maximum of $24,000 for homes valued at $1.85 million and above, building on the province and federal governments previous move to rebate the HST for all first-time buyers of new homes up to $1 million.
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1007212/ontario-expanding-hst-rebate-to-lower-the-cost-of-new-homes-in-partnership-with-the-federal-government
TD Economics: Canada - What Might Have Been
This weeks data releases and Bank of Canada (BoC) statement describe a world that could have been, with a domestic backdrop that showed signs of easing inflation. The war in Iran has upended that. With escalatory strikes on energy infrastructure this week, WTI oil prices are holding at $94 (as of the time of writing). All the focus is now on how big and persistent the energy shock will be with the prospect of stagflation looming.
It is unfortunate that households and businesses will face this new pinch, because this mornings retail sales data sent some positive signals. Real volumes posted a solid gain in January, taking the three-month gain to 7.7% (annualized) and Februarys preliminary estimate of the nominal figure showed another solid month could be expected. After a year of fits and starts, it looks like things were just starting to turn a corner. The expected surged in gasoline and energy prices in March will muddy the picture and likely eat into the real spending figures in the months ahead.
https://economics.td.com/ca-weekly-bottom-line
