Gourav Suri

Highlights

• Combined housing starts across Canada’s 7 key census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in the first half of 2025 were just a few units below 2024 levels and near all-time highs. However, this overall stability masked sharp regional differences. Gains in Calgary, Edmonton, Montréal and Ottawa were offset by declines in Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax.
• Ground-oriented construction – including single-detached, semi-detached and row homes – saw a modest growth, driven by lower mortgage rates unlocking demand in more affordable markets. In higher-cost centres, like Toronto and Vancouver, affordability remained strained and homebuyers cautious amid economic uncertainty.
• Condominium apartment starts declined in most key markets as slower presales led to project delays and cancellations. Meanwhile, purpose-built rental starts surged, bolstered by government support and a shift among developers toward the rental market.
• Active and new listings, which represent the other key component of housing supply, were either stable (Edmonton and Montréal) or rising (Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa and Halifax). Combined with strong housing completions, they have contributed to an increase in the overall supply in Canada’s key markets.
• Ongoing construction slowdowns in select CMAs pose risks to future housing supply, workforce retention and affordability. In the context of trade tensions, economic uncertainty and slower population growth, we expect combined starts across the 7 major CMAs to recover only gradually, with modest improvement by 2027.

CMHC