Jon Sowerby

Home sales remained relatively unchanged (-0.1%) from March to April following four monthly contractions. As a result, the number of transactions was 19% below the level in November last year, reversing last years rebound following the central banks interest rate cuts, and roughly in line with the depreciated level of sales observed in 2022. Sales increased in 6 of the countrys 10 provinces: New Brunswick (+5.2%), Manitoba (+3.3%), Quebec (+2.0%), Newfoundland (+1.9%), Nova Scotia (+1.8%), and Ontario (+1.1%). On the other hand, sales declined in B.C. (-2.3%), Alberta (-3.4%), Saskatchewan (-6.3%), and P.E.I. (-6.5%). There is no doubt that the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S. has weighed on consumer confidence and the housing market across the country, with potential buyers waiting for more economic visibility before acting. On the supply side, new listings decreased 1.0% from March to April. Combined with the low level of sales, active listings increased by 1.9% during the month, the fourth monthly advance in a row despite still elevated cancelled listings in April. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the fifth consecutive month, edging up from 5.0 in March to 5.1 in April, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding Covid). Meanwhile, market conditions loosened slightly during the month but remained relatively balanced compared to the historical average. This balanced market condition at the national level is explained by particularly soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while market conditions in every other province continue to indicate a favourable to sellers market. These looser market conditions have had an impact on prices, with the MLS Home Price Index declining by 1.2% month-over-month and by 3.6% year-over-year. On an annual basis, home sales dropped by 9.8% compared to April 2024, thus reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2009. Sales were down in four of the ten provinces: Ontario (- 20.2%), B.C. (-14.6%), Alberta (-11.7%), and Saskatchewan (-10.6%). On the other hand, the sharpest increases were observed in Quebec (+10.0%), Newfoundland (+7.4%), and Manitoba (+6.6%). For the first four months of 2025, cumulative home sales were down 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf

In March, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased by $549.4 million (-4.1%) to $12.9 billion. The decrease was led by the non-residential sector (-$716.3 million), and it was tempered by the residential sector (+$166.9 million). On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), the total value of building permits issued in March decreased 5.1% from the previous month and was up 11.1% on a year-over-year basis. Single-family permits slow residential sector growth Residential construction intentions in Canada increased $166.9 million (+2.0%) in March to reach $8.7 billion. A gain in the multi-family component (+$322.5 million to $5.9 billion) was partially offset by a decline in the single-family component (-$155.6 million to $2.8 billion). The rise in the multi-family component in March was particularly strong in British Columbia (+$397.8 million), driven by the Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA) (+$652.3 million). Meanwhile, the single-family component decrease was primarily observed in Ontario (-$185.7 million) and was supported by Quebec (-$26.0 million). Overall, 22,800 multi-family dwellings and 4,400 single-family dwellings were authorized for construction in March, representing a 4.6% increase from the previous month. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250514/dq250514a-eng.htm