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Stress Testing Now Required For All Canadian Mortgages
Stressed About the Mortgage Stress Test? It is not new news anymore, but it is a topic that should be explored by anyone with a mortgage or planning to apply for one. Last Octobers Government rule changes decreased borrowing amounts for consumers putting less than 20% down payment toward their home purchases (these applicants requiring mortgage insurance). Over the year we have seen increased interest rates and limited competition in the market for many types of loans. The end result of these changes is that, YOU - the consumer, has been greatly affected. With a year since the implementation of the Stress Test, the Federal Government being pleased with the result of this policy change, is now requiring Stress Testing for all uninsured mortgage loans as well (mortgages with down payments greater than 20% of the purchase price). This change being used to assist in further curbing Canadian households indebtedness, as well as cooling some of the real estate markets in Canada. The Stress Test is used in qualifying for your mortgage before you buy but what happens when your current mortgage comes to term. what options do you have? Do you renew with your current lender or are you able to move to a lower rate at a new lender? Mortgage rates are on their way up from our record lows in 2016 early planning for a new purchase or renewal could save you thousands of dollars in the future! It has never been a better time to work with an Accredited Mortgage Professional - our ability to provide choice, guidance, and support will help you make informed borrowing decisions.
Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas. The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise. Highlights: On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton. From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%). Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year. Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market. Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond. Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canadas target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Feds objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target. Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China. Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last. Source: Scotiabank Economics