The Redwood/Raven Reporter
I hope this message finds you well, and 2017 has you off to a good start.
Redwood has been in the business for 28 fun years. This year will be a year of exciting change. The Leafs in the playoffs, the boat in the water, a new corporatedirection, summer weather, the knowledge that my transmission is good for another 200,000K KMs (as the last one exploded in rush hour traffic on the 401), and my daughter getting married.
I would like to announce that Redwood Mortgage will become a licensee of Verico, Canadas largest mortgage network. The lending landscape is changing rapidly, and now is the time to align ourselves with Canadas largest network of mortgage professionals. The Your brand, Your way network system will allow Redwood Mortgage to have access to innovative tools, support devices, industry leading technology and lender accessibility. Some of the large advantages are electronic document storage and an increase in the number of lenders, which leads to moreproducts for you.
Raven Financial Services (Redwoods sister company), will remain totally independent, as previously mentioned Raven specializes in the management of private mortgage portfolios. Raven has doubled in size in the first quarter of 2017. Fly Raven fly!
I would also like to take the opportunity to announce our Marketing Manager and Executive Assistant Natalia Chavez as part of our team. Natalia will be responsible for managing and executing all Marketing projects for Redwood Mortgage and Raven Financial Services. She will also be announcing new exciting news and updates on both Redwood Mortgage Corporation and Raven Financial Services. Natalia will bring a very new approach to our brand with her outstanding skills and extensive knowledge on Digital Marketing.
Lastly, if you want to talk about a mortgage, or refer a friend/family member, or talk about anything really please do not hesitate to call, and I mean this sincerely. Pick up the phone, drop in or send me and e-mail. It is perfectly okay. You know I am a person who loves to get letters in the mail, meet people and talk on the phone.
Robert A. (Bob) Gascon
Redwood Mortgage Corporation FSCO #10288
Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.
The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise.
On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton.
From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%).
Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year.
Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market.
Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond.
Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canadas target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Feds objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target.
Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China.
Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last.
Source: Scotiabank Economics