“Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world.”
–Franklin D. Roosevelt, U.S. President
“Real Estate provides the highest returns, the greatest values, and the least risk.” –Armstrong Williams,
Gross domestic product, income and expenditure, third quarter 2019
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3%, following a 0.9% increase in the second quarter. Third quarter growth was led by higher business investment and increased household spending, boosting final domestic demand by 0.8%.
Expressed at an annualized rate, real GDP advanced 1.3% in the third quarter. In comparison, real GDP in the United States grew 1.9%.
Business investment rose 2.6% in the third quarter, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2017. Growth in household spending accelerated to 0.4%, after rising 0.1% in the second quarter. These increases were moderated by a 0.4% decline in exports, while imports were flat.
Non-farm business inventories were drawn down by $550 million in the third quarter, and the economy-wide stock-to-sales ratio hovered at 0.84. Cannabis inventories contributed to the $4.9 billion accumulation of farm inventories.
Housing investment accelerates
Housing investment rose 3.2%, the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2012. The increase was driven by both new home construction (+3.3%)mostly single-detached homes in Ontarioand higher ownership transfer costs (+8.7%) from increased resale activities in British Columbia and Ontario.
Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index
In October the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM began the fourth quarter with a dip of 0.1% from the month before. The final quarter of the year is typically slow for the index, and the monthly decline was in line with the average of the last 10 Octobers, in five of which the index retreated. In short, it is too soon to herald a downward trend on the national home resale market. Indeed, if seasonal pressure were removed (seasonal adjustment), October would have been the third consecutive month of an underlying uptrend.
Pulling the composite down on the month were retreats in the indexes for Edmonton (-1.0%), Winnipeg (-0.4%), Toronto (-0.2%), Hamilton (-0.2%), Calgary (-0.1%) and Montreal (-0.1%). Pulling it up were Quebec City (0.1%), Vancouver (0.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (0.2%), Victoria (0.7%) and Halifax (1.3%). For Vancouver it was a first monthly rise in 15 months, consistent with a strong revival of home sales since August. For Ottawa-Gatineau, October was the seventh consecutive monthly rise, for a cumulative surge of 9.8%. Victoria has also had a good run, with gains in six of the last seven months. For Halifax it was the 10th advance in 12 months. For Toronto, on the other hand, October ended a run of six monthly rises. Same story for the five-month runs of Montreal and Winnipeg. According to the most recent data, however, the resale market remains balanced in Toronto and favourable to sellers in Montreal.