CREA: Home Sales in Canada End 2025 Quietly
The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems declined 2.7% on a month -over-month basis in December 2025.
On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units in 2025, a decrease of 1.9% from 2024. The year was characterized by a tariff -induced flight of buyers back to the sidelines in the first quarter, followed by a decent sales rally mid -year, and a bit of a stall to finish off 2025.
There doesnt appear to have been much rhyme or reason to the month - over-month decline in home sales in December, which was simply the result of coincident but seemingly unrelated slowdowns in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. For that reason, it would be prudent for market observers to resist the temptation to trace a line from the end of 2025 into 2026. Rather, we continue to expect sales to move higher again as we get closer to the spring, rejoining the upward trend that was observed throughout the spring, summer, and early fall of last year.
December Highlights:
National home sales declined 2.7% month -over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 4.5% below December 2024.
The number of newly listed properties dropped 2% on a month -over-month basis .
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.3% month-over-month and was down 4% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was virtually unchanged ( -0.1%) on a year-over-year basis.
https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/home-sales-in-canada-end-2025-quietly/
TD Provincial Economic Forecast: The New "R-Word"… Resilience
From TD Economics
Relative to our September projection, weve upgraded our 2025 growth forecasts across most regions, partly on the back of data revisions that showed economies entering the year with stronger momentum than expected. We continue to see PEI, AB, SK and NF as growth leaders this year, lifted by goods-producing industries. Meanwhile, QC, MB and ON are the likely laggards, weighed down by the trade war.
For 2026, we see commodity-producing provinces outperforming again, but their margin of outperformance is likely to shrink amid moderately lower commodity prices, most prominently crude oil. Meanwhile, with the trade war proving less damaging than initially feared, provinces more geared to U.S. trade like ON, MB, QC, and NB have seen upgrades to their 2026 growth forecasts.
Provincial exports have improved mildly since the peak of the trade shock in Q2-25, but limited trade-data access has clouded recent recovery trends. We assume that current tariff rates as well as the USMCA exemptions remain in place over the forecast horizon. The outcome of USMCA renegotiations is a risk to the outlook.
Job markets in most provinces have turned in a more resilient performance than we had expected in September. Downside surprises in unemployment rates have been most pronounced in ON, AB, QC, NB, and PEI. While we could see job markets stumble again over the next few months, were expecting unemployment rates to broadly peak by Q1-2026 before drifting lower thereafter.
Significant regional variations will exist as Canadas housing market continues its gradual improvement next year. Price growth is likely to lag significantly in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, B.C., reflecting loose supply/demand conditions. In contrast, Quebec and the Prairies are likely to see firmer price gains, underpinned by tight conditions, and decent affordability (in the Prairies).
Population growth is projected to continue to decelerate sharply across provinces in response to recent changes in federal immigration policy. These changes are constraining labour force growth, limiting upside in provincial jobless rates and pressuring down rents and to a lesser extent consumer spending. Provinces most exposed to these effects include ON, B.C. and QC due to their higher non-permanent resident (NPR) shares.
https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast
CMHC: 2025 Year-In-Review
From CMHC
Structural barriers continue to slow progress
Policies on funding, zoning reform and the Housing Accelerator Fund have contributed to progress on housing. However, delivery remains slow due to structural barriers like long permitting times and inconsistent zoning, even as policy momentum builds. Innovation and scaling in private and non-profit sectors are crucial to boosting productivity.
Canada must double housing starts annually by 2035 to close the supply gap. While momentum is growing, bold action and stronger coordination are needed to turn plans into results.
Canadas housing delivery system
Even with incentives, Canadas build pipeline is slow to respond. There are signs of progress in some markets like Montral and Ottawa, but system-wide barriers remain. To accelerate delivery and close the supply gap, we need faster approvals, modernized permitting, better municipal data and scalable innovation in construction. Scale remains a key challenge across much of the construction sector.
Shifts in housing starts and rental markets
Housing starts were strong early in 2025 but slowed down later in the year. Toronto and Vancouver were hit hardest, with year-over-year numbers going down. Among key reasons for the slow-down were high interest rates, labour and material shortages, developer uncertainty and the cancellation of marginal projects. Meanwhile, starts remained strong in Alberta.
2025 saw the first meaningful easing in rental conditions but affordability remains tight. Rental market indicators are moving in the right direction overall, with vacancy rates going up and rent growth slowing, showing that the market is balancing out. However, we need to consider sustaining the market and rental supply in the long term.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/2025-year-in-review
