CREA: Fourth Quarter Housing Data Hints at Home Sales Rebound for 2025
With much of the early fall surge of supply having now been picked over, home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems dipped in December 2024.
Sales were down 5.8% compared to November, but still stand 13% above where they were in May, just before the first interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in early June.
The fourth quarter of 2024 saw sales up 10% from the third quarter and stood among the stronger quarters for activity in the last 20 years, not accounting for the pandemic.
The number of homes sold across Canada declined in December compared to a stronger October and November, although that was likely more of a supply story than a demand story, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Our forecast continues to be for a significant unleashing of demand in the spring of 2025, with the expected bottom for interest rates coinciding with sellers listing properties for sale in big numbers once the snow melts.
December Highlights:
National home sales fell 5.8% month-over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 19.2% above December 2023.
The number of newly listed properties dipped 1.7% month-over-month.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) climbed 0.3% month-over-month and was only down 0.2% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis.
https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/fourth-quarter-housing-data-hints-at-home-sales-rebound-for-2025/
NBC Housing Market Monitor: Home sales back near their pre-pandemic peak in November
Summary
Home sales increased 2.8% between October and November, a fourth consecutive monthly gain that follows a 6.8% jump in October.
On the supply side, new listings decreased by 0.5% compared to October, the second monthly decline in a row.
Active listings remained stable from October to November. With the increase in sales, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) decreased for a fourth month in a row, moving from 3.8 in October to 3.7 in November.
Market conditions tightened during the month and were tighter than their historical average in most provinces, while they remained roughly balanced in B.C. and Ontario.
Housing starts increased 8% (+20.2K) in November to 262.4K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), beating the median economist forecast which called for a 245.1K print. Octobers figure was also revised up slightly by 1.4K to 242.2K. The monthly increase was driven by a rise in urban starts (+20.6K to 245K), which was mainly supported by an 11% increase in the multi-unit segment (to 195.3K). Meanwhile, single-detached urban starts increased 1.8K to 49.8K. Starts were down in Toronto (-2.7K to 26.7K) and Calgary (-1.5K to 30.1K), but up in Montreal (+14.9K to 31.3K) and Vancouver (+1.6K to 32.0K) during November. At the provincial level, the most notable increased were registered in Nova Scotia (+1.4K to 5.6K), New Brunswick (+1.4K to 6.1K), Quebec (+10.7K to 53.3K), and British Columbia (+8.1K to 48.6K). On the other hand, declines were seen in P.E.I (-88% on the month, or -1.1K to 158), Manitoba (-1.2K to 7.1K), and Ontario (-5.3K to 59.4K).
The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index by 0.6% from October to November after adjustment for seasonal effects. Ten of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Quebec City (+2.2%), Halifax (+1.7%), Hamilton (+1.5%), Montreal (+1.3%), Vancouver (+1.2%), Victoria (+0.9%), Winnipeg (+0.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.4%), Calgary (+0.3%) and Toronto (+0.1%). Conversely, there was a decline in Edmonton (-0.8%).
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf
CMHC Fall 2024 Rental Market Report
Highlights
Rental market conditions across Canadas large urban centres remained tight despite lessening market pressures in some centres due to record level growth in supply outpacing strong demand.
The average vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments1 rose to 2.2% in 2024 from 1.5% in 2023, remaining below the 10-year historical average of 2.7%.
Average rent growth slowed, with rents for 2-bedroom units rising by 5.4%2, down from the record 8.0% in 2023.
Rents increased by 23.5% when units turned over, which is close to 2023 rates. Rent hikes on turnover units accounted for more than 40% of the overall rent increase.
Despite the slowdown in rent growth, renter affordability remained strained. The increase in rental stock was driven by newly completed, higher-priced units, which were unaffordable for many renters and primarily served higher-income households.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centres
