Andrej Miletic

Survey shows concerns about inflation and their own financial situations increased by 16 points. A special report from the BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals Canadians concerns about their personal finances have surged amid increased economic uncertainty and market volatility. The survey explored changes in Canadians concerns about their finances and current economic conditions between March and April 2025, and found: Cost of living considerations: 78% reported growing concerns about the cost of living in April a 17-point increase from 61% in March. Inflation concerns intensify Over three quarters (76%) say their concerns about inflation have increased a 16-point increase from 60%. Temperature on tariffs: Concerns about the impact of US tariffs increased from 65% to 74%. Rising recession risks: Canadians concerns about the prospect of economic recession increased from 60% to 74%. Pulse on personal finances: Nearly three in five (58%) say they are more concerned about their financial situation a 16-point increase from the 42% in March. In addition, nearly one quarter (24%) reported in April they are increasingly concerned about the prospect of losing their job. Canadian consumer confidence recently plummeted to the lowest depths in at least six decades on fear that the trade war will cost people their jobs and undermine their financial security. However, sentiment improved modestly in April amid a partial de-escalation of the trade war. A more recent recovery in equity markets should support confidence further in May, said Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist, BMO. While BMO Economics is concerned about the economic impact of tariffs, we are less worried about the inflation outlook, as retaliatory tariffs on imports from the U.S. have been restrained. CPI inflation will likely hold close to the Bank of Canadas 2% target this year, paving the way for some further reductions in policy rates. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-06-04-BMO-Survey-Personal-Finance-Concerns-Rose-Significantly-Between-March-to-April-2025

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the United States have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high. While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. In the United States, domestic demand remained relatively strong but higher imports pulled down first-quarter GDP. US inflation has ticked down but remains above 2%, with the price effects of tariffs still to come. In Europe, economic growth has been supported by exports, while defence spending is set to increase. Chinas economy has slowed as the effects of past fiscal support fade. More recently, high tariffs have begun to curtail Chinese exports to the US. Since the financial market turmoil in April, risk assets have largely recovered and volatility has diminished, although markets remain sensitive to US policy announcements. Oil prices have fluctuated but remain close to their levels at the time of the April MPR. In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence. Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales. Government spending also declined. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9%. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/06/fad-press-release-2025-06-04/