Andy Tan

Canadian home sales fell sharply from January to February, as home buyers remained on the sidelines in the first full month of the ongoing trade war with the United States. Sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems dropped 9.8% month-over-month in February 2025, marking the lowest level for home sales since November 2023, and the largest month-over-month decline in activity since May 2022. The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. This is already being reflected in renewed price softness, particularly in Ontarios Greater Golden Horseshoe region. Declines were broad-based, with sales falling in about three-quarters of all local markets and in almost all large markets. The trend was most pronounced in the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding Great Golden Horseshoe regions. February Highlights: National home sales dropped 9.8% month-over-month. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 10.4% below February 2024. The number of newly listed properties fell back 12.7% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) declined 0.8% month-over-month and was down 1% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price fell 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

Decision Details: The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with a nearly unanimous consensus and market pricing. This is the 7th consecutive cut, bringing cumulative rate relief to 225 basis points since June 2024. At 2.75%, the policy rate is equal to the mid-point of the BoCs estimated neutral range (2.25% to 3.25%) The BoCs overnight target is now 175 basis points below the Feds upper bound policy target (the largest rate gap since 1997) As was the case in January, the Bank will set the deposit rate 5 basis points below the target rate (2.70%). The Bank rate will remain 25 basis points above the overnight target (3.00%). Rate Statement Opening to the Press Conference: Driving the decision to cut 25 bps was inflation close to 2% and pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats. This is restraining consumers spending intentions and businesses plans to hire and invest. Note that in January, the Bank cited excess supply in the economy as contributing to that decision to ease. Theres no reference to excess supply or an output gap today. Not surprisingly, the Bank didnt commit to any particular rate path. However, theyve stressed that theyll have to proceed carefully with any further changes to our policy rate. Thats because there are upward pressures on inflation from higher costs along with the downward pressures from weaker demand.. The Bank notes that the economy entered 2025 in a solid position with robust GDP growth, stronger than their earlier assessment. That said, growth in Q1 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Export growth, however, could come in strong as US importers front loaded orders ahead of tariffs. As for the labour market, the statement notes the hiring pick-up from November to January but acknowledged Februarys. They add there are warning signs that trade tensions could disrupt the job market recovery. On wage growth, they see signs of moderation. The Bank highlights that headline inflation is close to the 2% target. The federal tax holiday has muddied the inflation picture, but the Bank notes inflation will be around 2.5% after the tax break. Again, the statement downplays above-target core inflation measures which are occurring because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. The Bank also stressed that short-term inflation expectations have risen. In an accompanying release, the BoC provided insight into how Canadian businesses and households are reacting to the trade conflict. The report highlighted consumer spending caution (plans to defer large purchases and increase precautionary savings), job security worries (especially in industries directly relying on exports to the U.S.), and a subdued business outlook. The BoC highlighted that businesses are reducing hiring/investment plans on the basis of heightened trade uncertainty, while both consumers and businesses are expecting prices to increase over the next year. While the opening remarks to the presser mention that the economic activity impact from tariffs is largely yet to be seen, uncertainty is already weighing considerably on business and consumer intentions. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf