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BLOG / NEWS Updates
Housing market continues to moderate in June
Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales were down between May and June 2021.
Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems fell by 8.4% month-over month in June 2021, marking the third straight monthly slowdown since activity hit an all-time record back in March. While sales are now down a cumulative 25% from their peak, and below every other month in the last year, June transactions still managed to set a record for that month.
Month-over-month declines in sales activity were once again quite broad-based, with sales moderating in around 80% of all local markets, including almost all large markets across Canada.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in June 2021 was up 13.6% on a year-over-year basis and marked a new record for that month.
While there is still a lot of activity in many housing markets across Canada, things have noticeably calmed down in the last few months, said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. There remains a shortage of supply in many parts of the country, but at least there isnt the same level of competition among buyers we were seeing a few months ago. As these conditions continue to evolve over the summer and fall, your best bet is to consult with your local REALTOR for information and guidance about buying or selling a home at this stage in the cycle, continued Stevenson.
Record rise of home prices in May
In May the TeranetNational Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 2.8% from the previous month, the largest monthly rise since the index series began in 1999. It was led by four of the 11 constituent markets: Ottawa-Gatineau (4.9%), Halifax (4.3%), Hamilton (3.7%) and Toronto (3.4%). Rises were more moderate for Vancouver (2.3%), Winnipeg (2.2%), Montreal (2.2%), Victoria (2.1%), Calgary (1.4%), Quebec City (1.2%) and Edmonton (1.2%). It was a third consecutive month in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before.
The May rise was consistent with the increase in number of home sales over the last several months as reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association. For a ninth straight month, the number of sale pairs entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier. The unsmoothed composite index, seasonally adjusted, was up 2.1% in May, suggesting that the uptrend of the published (smoothed) index could continue.
The May composite index was up 13.7% from a year earlier, for a 10th consecutive acceleration and the strongest 12-month gain since July 2017. The 12-month rise was led by five markets Halifax (29.9%), Hamilton (25.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (22.8%), Montreal (17.6%) and Victoria (15.3%). Toronto matched the countrywide average at 13.7%. Lagging that average were Vancouver (11.9%), Winnipeg (10.4%), Quebec City (9.8%), Calgary (4.5%) and Edmonton (3.6%).
Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In May all seven were up from the previous month and from a year earlier. The 12-month gains ranged from 27.6% for Brantford to 31.4% for Barrie.
Source: https://housepriceindex.ca/2021/06/may2021/
Similar Housing Demand Conditions in Canada and US
Housing markets in Canada and the US are sizzling. Recent headlines have used superlatives to describe housing market conditions in both countries and the data do back this up. Still, a closer look reveals some interesting distinctions as well. Home price and sales metrics show that while the US market is hot, Canadas is hotter. For example, existing home sales, which make up the majority of overall sales in both countries, is well above historical averages, but Canadian home sales have outperformed. As of March 2021, home sales in Canada were 75% higher than the average over 2018 and 2019, while it was 13% above in the US. Likewise, home prices also spiked. In Canada, the average home sold was 32% more expensive than what it was a year ago, and it was 17% higher stateside.
From a high level, the list of commonalties across markets during the pandemic is longer than the areas of difference, particularly on the demand side. Perhaps the most influential demand-side driver has been historically low mortgage rates. Responding to the impacts of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve slashed rates and enacted large quantitative easing programs early last year, resulting in a sharp drop in borrowing costs. Given that the US conventional mortgage rate is a 30-year rate compared to Canadas 5-year benchmark, borrowing costs fell faster in America as flight to safety flows lowered longer term yields at the onset of the pandemic.
Source:https://economics.td.com/housing-heat-check
