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Housing affordability: Significant deterioration in Q3 2023
From National Bank of Canada
The third quarter of 2023 witnessed a considerable deterioration for housing affordability in Canada. This degradation follows three consecutive quarters of improvements and deletes nearly two thirds of the progress that had been made so far. The worsening was widespread with every single market experiencing an increase in their mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI). At the national level the deterioration stemmed from a surge in home prices of 4.6%, the largest in 6 quarters and partially erasing the decline over the last year. A rebound in home prices during a period of rising interest rates could initially appear perplexing. That said, a chronic lack of supply in the resale market compounded by record population growth has allowed prices to rise. Also contributing to lessening affordability, mortgage interest rates rose 32 basis points in the quarter, more than eliminating the two prior declines. While still rising income was a partial offset in the third quarter, it did little to assuage the situation. Looking ahead, we see a moribund outlook for affordability. At the very least, a further worsening is in the cards for the last quarter of the year. Mortgage interest rates have steadily trended up in October on the back of rising longer-term interest rates. If interest rates hold at their current level, it would only take a home price increase of 2% in the fourth quarter to surpass the worst level of affordability in a generation. The outlook remains particularly challenging for first-time homebuyers.
Canadian housing affordability posted a worsening in Q323 following three consecutive improvements. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) rose 4.0 points, more than erasing the previous pullback of 1.6-points in Q223. Seasonally adjusted home prices increased 4.6% in Q323 from Q223; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) surged 32 bps, while median household income rose 1.2%.
Affordability deteriorated in all of the ten markets covered in Q3. On a sliding scale of markets from worst deterioration to least: Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria, Hamilton, Calgary, Montreal, Quebec, Ottawa-Gatineau, Winnipeg, and Edmonton. Countrywide, affordability worsened 2.5 pp in the condo portion vs. a 4.5 pp degradation in the non-condo segment.
🏡📉 Unveiling the Mortgage Chronicles: Navigating the "Higher for Longer" Interest Rates Rollercoaster in Canada! 🚀📈
Hold onto your toques, fellow Canucks! The Bank of Canadas Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Rogers, just spilled the financial tea in Vancouver, and its a game-changer for mortgage holders. 🍵💸
In this riveting ride through the monetary maze, Rogers dishes on why interest rates might be our new long-term frenemy. Global forces are doing the tango with higher rates, and were not left out of the dance floor drama. Our very own Banks overnight target rate has set a record-breaking pace, climbing a whopping 475 basis points in just 16 months! Talk about a financial sprint! 🏃♂️💼
So, whats the deal? The era of low rates during the pandemic, thanks to frugal baby boomers, Chinas economic rise, and lackluster business investments, is bidding us adieu. These trends are doing a 180, cranking up the pressure on interest rates. 🔥💰
But fear not! Rogers isnt sounding the alarm; shes giving us the heads up to buckle up and make savvy financial moves. Think of it like adjusting your playlist for a longer road trip gotta keep the vibes right! 🎶💪
Our economys been flexing, adapting to higher rates like a boss. But Rogers says we cant chill just yet; we need to keep the hustle alive to ensure our financial system stays robust as a beaver dam. 🦫🏛️
This higher-for-longer rhythm has hit pause on consumer spending and borrowing, with annual household credit growth slowing to a steady 3%. Its like the 90s slowed-down remix of our financial moves! 🕺💳
And for all you mortgage enthusiasts, take note! Applications are napping, but banks are still giving the green light. Rogers assures us its not a lending standards crackdown; its just a I need some space moment for credit demand. 🤷♀️💔
But heres the real talk: if youve got a mortgage with fixed payments, brace yourself! By the end of 2026, youll be facing a renewal cycle, and depending on the interest rate vibes, your payments might hit the dance floor with significantly higher numbers. 💃💸
Dont hit panic mode just yet! Rogers is keeping an eye on the financial stress-o-meter for households with mortgages, and so far, its a cool breeze. Delinquency rates on credit cards, auto loans, and unsecured lines of credit are doing the limbo at pre-pandemic levels. 🏖️💳
So, Canucks, lets keep our financial game strong, adjust our money mindset, and ride this interest rate rollercoaster like pros. 💪💸 And guess where I snagged all this juicy info? The Canadian Mortgage Trends magazine, dated November 9, 2023. Stay savvy, stay cool, and may your interest rates be ever in your favor! 🇨🇦💰 #MortgageMagic #FinancialFlex #HigherForLonger #InterestRateInsider #HomeSweetHome #VancouverMortgageBroker #NorthVancouverMortgageBroker #WestVancouverMortgageBroker #BurnabyMortgageBroker #CoquitlamMortgageBroker #PortMoodyMortgageBroker #NewWestminsterMortgageBroker #SurreyMortgageBroker #LangleyMortgageBroker #AbbotsfordMortgageBroker #MissionMortgageBroker #MapleRidgeMortgageBroker #PittMeadowsMortgageBroker #ChilliwackMortgageBroker #KelownaMortgageBroker #VernonMortgageBroker #VictoriaMortgageBroker #VancouverIslandMortgageBroker #BestMortgageRates #BestMortgageBroker #HomeSweetHome 🏡🍁
"Bank of Canada's Roller Coaster Ride with Interest Rates and Inflation 🇨🇦💰"
Hey there, financial-savvy folks! 📈 Ready for a scoop on the latest roller coaster ride at the Bank of Canada? Buckle up because weve got some insights from a November 8, 2023 article in Canadian Mortgage Trends magazine.
Is the Interest Rate Going Up or Down? 🎢
So, last month, the Bank of Canada decided to keep the interest rates steady. But guess what? Not everyone was on the same page! 🤔 Some were like, Yep, rates should go up to tame inflation, while others were more chill, thinking that 5% might do the trick to bring inflation back to 2%, if we hold it there long enough. In the end, they decided to be patient and maintain the status quo. 🙆♀️🙆♂️
Inflation: The Ultimate Balancing Act 📊
Inflation, the star of the show, has been putting on quite a performance. 🌟 Headline inflation slowed down to 3.8% in September, but core inflation (which ignores the wacky stuff like food and energy) has been hanging around 3.5% to 4% for a whole year! 🍔⛽
Why Is Inflation Sticking Around? 🏠💸
The Bank of Canadas Council had a little chat about whats been stopping them from tackling inflation. First up, global oil prices have been on the rise, pushing inflation up from its summer low. 🛢️🌎
And then theres shelter inflation, which is riding high at a whopping 6%. This is thanks to the banks own monetary policy tightening, causing mortgage interest costs to soar. 🏡💰 Usually, higher interest rates should cool down house prices, but theres a hiccup: Canadas housing shortage. 🏗️ The rapidly growing population is only adding to the housing supply-demand imbalance.
Whats the Future Look Like? 🔮
In their latest Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada upgraded their inflation forecast. Theyre thinking well see an average of 3.9% in 2023 (up from 3.7%), before a drop to 3% in 2024 (previously 2.5%). Its a bit of a wild ride, but theyre aiming to hit their 2% target by mid-2025. 🎯
So, thats the scoop on the Bank of Canadas recent dance with interest rates and inflation. Stay tuned for more financial twists and turns! 💃🕺 #BankOfCanada #Inflation #InterestRates #EconomicRide #FinanceUpdates 📰💸
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