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No respite for Canadian housing affordability in Q4 2023
From National Bank of Canada
The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a second consecutive deterioration for housing affordability in Canada. The degradation was widespread with every single market experiencing an increase in their mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI) due to both higher interest rates and rising home prices. This worsening has practically eliminated recent improvements in affordability and our index at the national level is almost back to its worst affordability since the 1980s. That said, the headline index dissimulates a more worrisome picture. Indeed, the condo sub-index has reached its highest level of unaffordability in at least two decades. In other words, it would take nearly half of pre-tax median household income to service the median condo mortgage. With the condo market typically being the entry point for first-time homebuyers it leaves the latter with few options. While homeownership is becoming untenable, the rental market offers little respite. Our rental affordability index has never been worse. It would take nearly one third of pre-tax household income to pay for the average rent of a two-bedroom condo. The outlook for the coming year is fraught with challenges. While mortgage interest rates are showing signs of waning in the face of expected rate cuts by the central bank, housing demand remains supported by unprecedented population growth. As a result, we expect some upside to prices in 2024. On the rental side, in a recently released report by the CMHC, Canada`s rental market vacancy stumbled to a record low of 1.5% which leaves little room for an improvement in rents. Supply for any segment of the market isn`t expected to pick up anytime soon as building permits in many Canadian cities has plummeted at the end of 2023.
🏡 Canadian Real Estate Roundup: Home Sales Surge in January Kickstarting 2024 📈
Hey there, home hunters and market enthusiasts! 🏠✨ Guess what? The Canadian real estate scene is off to a roaring start in 2024, and weve got the deets straight from the Canadian Mortgage Trends magazine!
Toronto Lights Up the Sales Chart 🔥
The Greater Toronto Area is stealing the spotlight with a whopping 37% increase in home sales compared to last year! 🌆📊 And hey, even though average prices dipped slightly by 1%, theres a silver lining. Get ready for more action as the Bank of Canada gears up to potentially cut rates in the second half of the year. 🏦💰
Vancouvers Bounce Back 💪
Not to be outdone, Vancouver is making a strong comeback with a stellar 38.5% surge in sales! 🌊🏡 The benchmark prices are up by 4.2%, and with more sellers stepping into the ring, the competition is getting fierce. 🥊🔥 Brace yourselves for a potential shift into sellers territory if inventory cant keep up with the demand! 📈🛒
Montreals Resilience 🍁
Heading east to Montreal, where the market is showing resilience with an 18% boost in sales. 🎉💼 The median prices for both single-family homes and condos are on the rise, fueled by positive prospects regarding interest rates. 📈💸 Keep an eye out for potential headwinds due to economic slowdown, but the market is holding its ground! 🏡🤞
Calgarys Hot Streak 🔥
Calgary is heating up with a 37.7% jump in sales, and the benchmark prices are sizzling at a 10% increase! 🌞🔥 New listings are helping ease supply challenges, but the tight conditions are keeping the prices on an upward trajectory. 📈🏠
Ottawas Cautious Comeback 🏰
Meanwhile, in Ottawa, the market is cautiously coming back to life with a 16.5% rise in sales. 📈🌼 While benchmark prices climb by 3.2%, it seems buyers are cautiously approaching the market post-pandemic. 🏡😌
Whats Next? 🚀
Hold onto your real estate hats because experts predict a second-half surge in 2024, especially if the Bank of Canada decides to cut interest rates! 💼💰
So, whether youre a buyer, seller, or just a real estate enthusiast, the Canadian housing market is shaping up to be quite the rollercoaster ride this year! 🎢🏠
#RealEstate #HomeSales #CanadaHousing #MarketTrends #BankOfCanada #Homebuying2024 🏡✨
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Canadian Home Sales Showing Signs of Recovery
Following a weak second half of 2023, home sales over the last two months are showing signs of recovery, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems rose 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% month-over-month increase recorded the month prior. While activity is now back on par with 2023s relatively stronger months recorded over the spring and summer, it begins 2024 about 9% below the 10-year average.
Sales are up, market conditions have tightened quite a bit, and there has been anecdotal evidence of renewed competition among buyers; however, in areas where sales have shot up most over the last two months, prices are still trending lower. Taken together, these trends suggest a market that is starting to turn a corner but is still working through the weakness of the last two years, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist.