Jana Dodokova, AMP

• The soft start to the year for the Canadian economy appears broad-based, underpinning 2026 real GDP growth downgrades across provinces, particularly in Ontario, B.C. and parts of the Atlantic. The picture is better in per capita terms, with positive growth expected across all provinces this year, led by Newfoundland and Labrador.
• A rebound in employment in May offered a modest lift to labour markets after a soft first quarter, but data volatility continues to cloud the underlying trends. Population growth is slowing sharply, with outright declines in Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. leading to smaller labour forces. This should help cap increases in unemployment, even as hiring slows to a near-standstill.
• The U.S.-Iran conflict has lifted global energy prices, providing a meaningful revenue and income boost to oil- producing provinces—particularly Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador. Prices are expected to moderate through the back half of the year as Middle East tensions ease, though the outlook is highly uncertain. Higher fuel costs are weighing on households and businesses, especially in Central Canada.
• Provincial budget season has wrapped up, with deficits and net debt (both as a share of GDP) set to rise in aggregate this year. While FY 2026/27 program spending is set to gear down across provinces, weighing on GDP, committed public capital spending plans remain an important source of support. New initiatives were targeted rather than transformative, including measures such as the removal of the PST on groceries in Manitoba and tax cuts for businesses and new home purchases in Ontario. 
• Canadian home sales in the second quarter are tracking broadly in line with our prior projection, led by Ontario, while price growth is somewhat stronger. We continue to expect a gradual recovery through next year, with modest improvements in Ontario and B.C. (supported by pent-up demand), partly offset by cooling activity in other regions amid scant population growth.
• The July 1 CUSMA review deadline is nearing, but timely renewal looks unlikely as talks have yet to pick up. Trade uncertainty remains elevated as the U.S. stays committed to tariffs. Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. are most exposed given their reliance on manufacturing and trade. Still, exemptions for CUSMA-compliant goods have left Canada facing relatively low effective tariff rates, helping support export recoveries in most provinces.

https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast