Home price deflation about to ebb in Western Canada?
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.4% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI has been depressed by Vancouver’s index loss of 6.2% during this period, corresponding to a 12-month string without a gain. Other Western metropolitan areas (Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg) also contributed to slow the national HPI. At the opposite, annual index growth has been decent in most of the six regions located in the central and eastern part of the country. The fact that the national HPI registered gains over the last three months does not mean that the market has turned the corner. Indeed, the three latest rises were weak compared to the 21-year average for those months. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in these months this year. That being said, the recent rebound in home sales across Canada was also felt in the Western part of the country. This should help limit home-price deflation in this region.