The housing market resumed its downward trend in November
- On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 3.3% from October to November, an eighth monthly decline in nine months. After recording a gain in October, the real estate market has resumed its downward trend of recent months, accumulating a decline in sales of 38.8% since their February level.
- New listing were down 1.3% from October to November, a fourth contraction in five months which shows that both buyers and sellers remain on the sidelines in the current market environment.
- It should also be noted that a very high proportion of sellers are changing their minds, while we estimate that about one in five listings are withdrawn during the month.
- The level of sales is still allowing supply to rebuild, with the number of months of inventory increasing from 3.9 to 4.2 in November.
- While easing, market conditions are still pointing in the direction of a "favourable to sellers" market with supply still very low on a historical basis.
- Housing starts were essentially steady in November at a level way above historical trends (-0.4K to 264.2K, seasonally adjusted and annualized). This was better than consensus expectations calling for a decline. That said, the prior month's result was revised downwards from 267.1 to 264.6K.
- The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price lndexTM decreased by 1.1% in November compared to the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, a fifth consecutive monthly decrease. After adjusting for seasonal effects, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Montreal (-2.2%), Hamilton (-1.9%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.3%), Winnipeg (-1.1%), Quebec City (-1.1%), Toronto (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.8%). Conversely, the Halifax (+l.6%), Victoria (+0.9%) and Edmonton (+0.3%) markets were up.