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BLOG / NEWS Updates
Positive News for First-Time Homebuyers…
We welcome the Conservative Governments announcement today proposing to increase the RRSP Home Buyers Plan (HBP) withdrawal up to $35,000 from the current $25,000 for first-time homebuyers. If implemented, a couple buying a home together would have access to an extra $20,000 of their RRSPs to help with their down payment and other expenses relating to their home purchase. Borrowers are considered first-timers if, in the past four years, they have not lived in a home that they or their current spouse/common-law partner owned. (See Conditions.) As you may be aware, CAAMP regularly visits both federal and provincial government officials. This announcement is in line with the kind of recommendations that CAAMP makes during meetings with officials in the Ministry of Finance Office and the Prime Ministers Office. The government respects our industry-leading research and sees your association as a positive resource. Our latest research report released in June A Profile of Home Buying in Canada prepared by CAAMP Chief Economist Will Dunning shows withdrawals from RRSPs (including via the HBP) accounted for 10% of down payment funds for first-time buyers. If put into action, this proposed HBP withdrawal increase would go a long way in helping first-time homebuyers across Canada. Todays announcement follows Stephen Harpers first big-ticket promise of his campaign: another tax break for home renovations made earlier this month. Taxpayers would be able to claim up to 15% of the cost of permanent substantial renovations to homes, condos and cottages. The tax credit would apply to renovation costs between $1,000 and $5,000, allowing a taxpayer to get back up to $600 per year. We look forward to more positive housing-related announcements from other campaigns leading up to the fall election.
Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas. The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise. Highlights: On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton. From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%). Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year. Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market. Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond. Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canadas target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Feds objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target. Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China. Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last. Source: Scotiabank Economics