Mortgages remain a hot topic in corporate boardrooms, around policy tables and even during family dinners. Canada is standing right in the middle of the major mortgage renewal wave—one that experts have long warned about. In the midst of this mortgage renewal wave, are Canadian homeowners able to keep up with their mortgage payments at higher rates during a time of economic uncertainty and rising unemployment?

The national mortgage arrears rate—the share of mortgage consumers who have missed payments for 90 days or more—has been increasing. However, this trend is nuanced, and its interpretation has led to some confusion. The fact is that Canadian homeowners are facing 2 distinct financial realities. On one side, are emerging risks, while on the other, mortgage arrears remain low.

On one hand, there are clear signs of household financial strain in regions like Toronto and Vancouver, where arrears are projected to continue increasing steadily. Additionally, certain groups of borrowers across the country are showing greater vulnerability than others. For these groups—especially the pandemic-era first-time homebuyers—the financial pressure is much more evident.

On the other hand, Canadian homeowners have proven to be remarkably resilient given the challenges they’ve had to navigate. While the increase in mortgage arrears has been significant (+7 bps between 2023 Q3 and 2025 Q3), arrears remain historically low.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/mortgage-renewal-wave-strains-some-regions-borrowers