CANADA HOUSING MARKET: NATIONAL HOUSING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO COOL

National unit sales significantly fell from December to January. This weakening in sales combined with a sharp rise in new listings contributed to lower the sales-to-new listings ratio to near the lower bound of the estimated range for balanced conditions. However, unusually inclement weather in Ontario centres contributed to amplify the slowdown in national sales in January.

National sales (in units) posted a -5.8% (sa) drop from December to January. They weakened in each of the last 3 months, posting a cumulative -10.2% decline (with sa figures) since October 2025. In January, they were 16.2% below their level in November 2024, the period when trade tensions started to emerge as the incoming U.S. administration announced its intention to increase tariffs on imports from key economic partners. Compared to the same month in 2025, national sales were 16.2% (nsa) lower in January. Following 4 months of monthly declines, new listings rose sharply in January (7.3% m/m, sa) but fell 6.2% (nsa) from the same month in 2025.

With this significant decline in sales and the sharp rise in new listings from December to January, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell from 51.3% (sa) in December to 45% in January, a 6.3 percentage points (pps) drop. This indicator of housing market conditions now stands very close to our 44.6% estimate for the lower bound of the balanced conditions range. This indicator declined by 4.1 pps (from sa figures) since January of 2025.

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.february-18--2026.html