Franco Noce

Summary

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales dropped 5.6% from September to October, a fourth monthly contraction in a row and the sharpest slowdown in sales since June 2022.
• On the supply side, new listings decreased 2.3% in October, a first decline in seven months.
• Active listing increased by 4.6%, a fourth monthly gain in a row. As a result the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) increased from 3.7 in September to 4.1 in October and is now roughly back in line with its pre-pandemic level.
• The market conditions loosened during the month but remained tighter than its historical average in 7 provinces, while market conditions were balanced in B.C. and Manitoba, and looser than average in Ontario.
• Housing starts rose 4.0K in October to a 4-month high of 274.7K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result comfortably above the median economist forecast calling for a 255.0K print. Urban starts advanced 6.1K (to 257.4K) on gains in both the multi-family (+2.1K to 209.9K) and the single-family segment (+4.0K to 47.5K). Starts decreased in Toronto (-13.9K to 44.6K), Montreal (-13.6K to 18.2K), and Calgary (-9.0K to 34.8K), while they increased in Vancouver (+9.0K to 34.8K).
• The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment. seven of the 11 markets in the composite index were still up during the month: Montreal (+3.7%), Halifax (+1.1%), Winnipeg (+1.0%), Quebec City (+0.9%), Calgary (+0.6%), Victoria (+0.3%) and Hamilton (+0.2%). Conversely, prices were down in Toronto (-1.6%), Edmonton (-1.2%), Vancouver (-1.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.1%).

https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf