Franco Noce

• Weaker-than-expected performances in 2025Q4 and especially 2026Q1 have prompted a steep downgrade to our forecasts for 2026 annual average Canadian home resales and price growth. While severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada weighed on activity early in the year, weakness was also evident in B.C., where conditions were more temperate. Sales are likely to take most of the year to recoup first quarter losses, as housing remains constrained by a subdued economy, heightened uncertainty, and ongoing cost of living pressures.
• Interest rates are expected to be a largely neutral factor for the outlook in 2026, with the Bank of Canada likely to remain on hold and no major movements expected in bond yields (which help determine fixed mortgage rates).
• Canada’s population declined last year for the first time since Confederation, driven by losses in Ontario and B.C.. Softer rental demand and falling rents are discouraging investor activity in both provinces. Alberta stands out, with the strongest population growth nationally, supported by immigration. Interprovincial migrants continue to flow into the province, bolstering ownership demand.

https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook