Jonathan Askew

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. The resulting increases in energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global economic growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated.

In the United States, economic growth remains solid, supported by consumption and AI‑related investment. In the euro area, growth is subdued, with higher energy prices weighing on activity. China’s economic growth continues to be supported by strong exports.

Canadian financial conditions have loosened since the April Monetary Policy Report. Global equity markets have been buoyant and bond yields remain volatile. The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar and other currencies.

In Canada, GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the April MPR. Consumer spending grew 1.4% but government spending unexpectedly declined. Housing activity also declined and business investment remained weak. Exports fell while imports rose strongly as inventories were rebuilt. Employment was up in May, but looking through monthly volatility, employment in Canada is little changed since the start of the year. The unemployment rate continues to fluctuate in the 6 ½%-7% range with the most recent reading at 6.6% in May.

Key developments in Canada’s residential mortgage market in 2025 and the outlook for 2026:

• In 2025, the mortgage market activity was dominated by renewals of existing mortgages, rather than new mortgages taken out by homebuyers.
• Renewal volumes are expected to ease in 2026. Borrowers renewing after a 5-year term are likely to face a similar interest-rate shock as those who renewed in 2025.
• Insured mortgage activity increased compared to uninsured lending. New eligibility rules made it easier for first-time homebuyers and new home buyers to qualify for mortgage insurance.
• The national 90+ days mortgage delinquency rates increased in 2025. The increase was largely concentrated in Ontario, especially Toronto, where households faced growing payment pressures.
• Despite the increase, 90+ days delinquency rates remain low by recent standards. Delinquencies on non-mortgage products – often a predictor of mortgage defaults – are rising but at a slower pace.
• Canada’s residential mortgage debt exceeded $2.4 trillion in December 2025, reaching a new high.
• Overall, borrower stress is increasing due to softer labour-market conditions and accumulated exposure to higher interest rates. The system is more rate-sensitive, but remains structurally stable.

Key trends to watch

The following factors may influence the performance of Canada’s residential mortgage market in the coming years:

• Upcoming renewal cycles, particularly borrowers rolling into new rates through 2026–27.
• Labour market conditions, given their close relationship with arrears.
• Shifts in insured mortgage activity, including amortization trends and eligibility effects.
• Performance of nonbank lenders, especially where borrower profiles differ from banks.

• Home sales in Canada edged up by 0.7% from March to April, the first increase in six months.
• New listings increased by 4.1% from March to April, following stabilization the previous month.
• Active listings increased by 2.7% in April, the third increase in four months.
• The number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales ratio) edged up from 5.1 to 5.2 during the month, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding the pandemic).
• Market conditions loosened slightly in April but remained balanced at the national level, which largely reflects soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers.
• Housing starts increased by 39.6K from 239.7K in March to 279.3K in April (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a print well above the consensus calling for 245.0K. This rebound was driven by a pickup in urban areas (+37.8K to 265.6K), while rural areas also edged higher (+1.8K to 13.7K). The increase in urban areas was concentrated in the multi-unit segment (+39.7K to 229.1K), while the single-detached segment edged lower (-2.0K to 36.5K). Housing starts rose sharply in Toronto (+19.1K to 37.4K) and Vancouver (+4.7K to 25.8K), while they declined in Calgary (-5.7K to 14.9K) and Montreal (-1.7K to 28.0K).
• The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price fell by 0.7% from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Six of the eleven CMAs included in the index recorded declines during the month: Winnipeg (-2.3%), Calgary (-1.2%), Toronto (-1.1%), Vancouver (-0.7%), Montreal (-0.5%), and Hamilton (-0.3%). Conversely, prices rose in Halifax (+2.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.1%), Victoria (+0.4%), Edmonton (+0.1%), and Quebec City (+0.1%).