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BLOG / NEWS Updates
Scotiabank: CANADA HOUSING MARKET: CONTINUE TO TREND UP … NOT SO FOR PRICES
From Scotiabank
National housing sales posted a fifth consecutive increase in August. The sales-to-new listings ratio edged down nationally from July to August as new listings rose at a faster pace than sales. The national MLS House Price Index declined mildly in August, hence still on its downward trend since summer of 2023.
Housing sales rose 1.1% (sa) nationally from July to August, the fifth consecutive monthly gain since their most recent trough in March of this year. The cumulative increase in national sales since March is 12.5%, but they were 7.4% weaker in August than their most recent peak achieved last November. In August, national sales rose 1.9% (nsa) from their level in the same month of 2024. New listings increased 2.6% from July to August (sa) and by 6.1% (nsa) since August 2024. They have been mostly trending up since early 2023 and were approaching in August their level just before the Bank of Canada started tightening its policy rate in March 2022.
With the rising pace of national new listings exceeding that of sales in August, the national sales-to-new listings ratio edged down from 52% in July to 51.2% in August. This indicator of housing market conditions has been in the lower half of our estimated balanced conditions range (of between 44.7 and 66.1%) since 2025 began. The other indicator of market conditionsmonths of inventorystayed unchanged from July to August at 4.4 (sa figures), still below its pre-pandemic long-term average of 5.2. This indicator of market conditions has eased since its most recent trough in November 2024 when it was at 3.7.
The national MLS House Price Index (HPI) edged down -0.1% (sa) from July to August with all unit types contributing to this monthly decline, except for 1-storey singles (+0.2%). 2-storey singles and apartment units both posted a -0.2% monthly decline in August while townhouse units declined -0.3%. From August 2024 to August 2025, the MLS HPI declined -3.4% (nsa), and all unit types contributed to this annual decline. The largest annual declines were observed for apartments (-5.3%) and townhouses (-4.6%) while the smallest decline was observed for 1-storey single units (-1.1%). The National MLS HPI in August was near 18% below its March 2022 level (sa figures)the month when the Bank of Canada started tightening its policy stanceand more than 26% above its pre-pandemic (December 2019) level.
Sales increased in about 60% of local markets we track from July to August while new listings increased in near 55% of them. Market conditionsas measured by the sales-to-new listings ratioeased in just below 50% of these local markets over this period.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.september-15--2025.html
CREA: Canadian Home Sales Post Best August in Four Years
The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems edged up 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in August 2025. It was the best month of August for sales since 2021, and the fifth straight monthly increase in activity, making for a cumulative 12.5% since March.
Unlike in recent months, when gains were led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), sales in the GTA were down slightly in August, but this was more than offset by higher sales in Montreal, Greater Vancouver and Ottawa.
Activity has continued to gradually pick up steam over the last five months, but the experience from a year ago suggests that trend could accelerate this fall, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Part of what drives sales at different points in the year is the availability of a lot of fresh property listings for buyers to buy. For the fall market, that always happens right at the beginning of September, and this year was no exception. If last year is any kind of guide, then there is the potential that sales could really pick up in the next month or so depending on how many buyers are drawn off the sidelines, particularly if we see a September rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
August Highlights:
National home sales were up 1.1% month-over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 1.9% above August 2024.
The number of newly listed properties climbed 2.6% on a month-over-month basis.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.1%) month-over-month and was down 3.4% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2½%
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.
After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. Chinas economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canadas exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar.
Canadas GDP declined by about 1% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.
Employment has declined in the past two months since the Banks July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease.
CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2%. The federal governments recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-press-release-2025-09-17/
