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BLOG / NEWS Updates
CREA Updates Resale Housing Market Forecast for 2026 and 2027
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its 2026 forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations and extended the outlook to include 2027.
One year ago, expectations were that 2025 would mark a turning point, with buyers beginning to come off the sidelines after a significant slowdown across many Canadian housing markets. That slowdown coincided with the Bank of Canadas use of higher interest rates to fightand ultimately winits first battle with inflation since adopting its inflation-targeting mandate in 1992.
While the economic uncertainty resulting from U.S. tariff threats ultimately resulted in another slow year for housing in 2025, most of that weakness was front loaded in the first months of the year. Beginning in April, the market underwent a rally that saw sales climb 12% by August. While this slowed into more of a holding pattern to finish the year, its that mid-year upward trend that is expected to pick up once again in 2026.
A major factor underpinning this forecast for higher activity in 2026 is pent-up demand, particularly from first-time buyers, many of whom have been shut out of the market over the past four years. While interest rates have not fallen as far as many may have hoped for, they have likely fallen far enough to restore the attainability of homeownership for many, despite affordability that remains more challenging than it was prior to 2020.
https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/crea-downgrades-resale-housing-market-forecast-amid-tariff-uncertainty-and-economic-uncertainty/
Scotia Bank: Canadian Home Sales (December 2025): Housing News Flash
CANADA HOUSING MARKET: FOR 2025, THE EARLY-YEAR OPTIMISM WAS SIDETRACKED BY RISING GLOBAL TRADE FRICTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY
National housing sales (in units) posted another monthly decline in December. The sales-to-new listings ratioan indicator of market conditions tightnesseased modestly over this period with new listings also declining, but at a lesser pace than sales. The national MLS HPI continued its downward trend in December, consistent with easier housing market conditions nationally.
National (unit) sales fell -2.7% (sa figures) from November to December, after a -0.8% monthly decline in November. In December, they were -10.1% below their most recent peak achieved in November 2024, and 4.5% (nsa figures) below their December 2024 level. National new listings posted their fourth consecutive monthly decline in December with a -2% (sa) print. However, they were in December 0.8% higher than the same month in the previous year.
National resale market conditions eased in December, from both the previous month and from the same month in 2024. The monthly easing reflects a 0.4 percentage point decline (sa) for the sales-to-new listings ratio from November to Decemberas the decline in sales modestly outpaced that in new listingsas well as a modest rise in months of inventory from 4.4 to 4.5 months over this period. Second, the yearly progression in both the sales-to-new listings ratiodeclining by 3.5 p.p.and months of inventoryrising by 0.6 monthsuggests easier resale conditions last December compared to a year earlier.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.january-15--2026.html
CREA: Home Sales in Canada End 2025 Quietly
The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems declined 2.7% on a month -over-month basis in December 2025.
On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units in 2025, a decrease of 1.9% from 2024. The year was characterized by a tariff -induced flight of buyers back to the sidelines in the first quarter, followed by a decent sales rally mid -year, and a bit of a stall to finish off 2025.
There doesnt appear to have been much rhyme or reason to the month - over-month decline in home sales in December, which was simply the result of coincident but seemingly unrelated slowdowns in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. For that reason, it would be prudent for market observers to resist the temptation to trace a line from the end of 2025 into 2026. Rather, we continue to expect sales to move higher again as we get closer to the spring, rejoining the upward trend that was observed throughout the spring, summer, and early fall of last year.
December Highlights:
National home sales declined 2.7% month -over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 4.5% below December 2024.
The number of newly listed properties dropped 2% on a month -over-month basis .
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.3% month-over-month and was down 4% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was virtually unchanged ( -0.1%) on a year-over-year basis.
https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/home-sales-in-canada-end-2025-quietly/
