6 MONTHS TO A BETTER BUDGET
One of the challenges with proper budgeting is that it has to become habitual in order to be effective. You can survive without knowing how to budget if you manage to keep more money coming in rather than going out or have credit cards to cover the gap, but this won't last forever. Emergency Fund The crux of this six-month plan is the emergency fund. Ideally, everyone should have at least one or two months' wages sitting in a money market account for any unpleasant surprises. This emergency fund acts as a buffer as the rest of the budget is put in place, and should replace the use of credit cards for emergency situations. You will want to build your emergency fund as quickly as possible. The key is to build the fund at regular intervals, consistently devoting a certain percentage of each paycheck toward it and, if possible, putting in whatever you can spare on top. What's an Emergency? You should only use the emergency money for true emergencies: like when you drive to work but your muffler stays at home. Covering regular purchases like clothes and food do not count, even if you used your credit card to buy them. Downsize and Substitute Now that you have a buffer between you and more high-interest debt, it is time to start the process of downsizing. It’s odd that the natural solution to not enough money seems to be increasing income rather than decreasing spending, but this backwards approach is very familiar to debt counselors. The more space you can create between your expenses and your income, the more income you will have to pay down debt and invest. This can be a process of substitution as much as elimination. For example, if you buy coffee from a fancy coffee shop every morning, you could just as easily purchase a coffee maker with a grinder and make your own, saving more money over the long term. Focus on Rewards Another trick that will help your budget come together faster is to focus on the rewards. A mixture of long- and short-term goals will help keep you motivated. This can be as simple as saving for a small luxury, or even something bigger like buying a car with cash. Watching these goals slowly but surely become a reality can be very satisfying and provide further motivation to work harder at your budget. Find New Sources of Income Why isn't this the first step? If you simply increase your income without a budget to handle the extra cash properly, the gains tend to slip through the cracks and vanish. Once you have your budget in place and have more money coming in than going out, you can start investing to create more income. Now, it is possible that it will take you more than six months to get your budget balanced out as it all depends on your situation, including how much or what kind of debt you have. But, even if it does take you longer than six months to get your budget turned around, it is time well spent. (Source: Investopedia.com)
Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.
The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise.
On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton.
From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%).
Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year.
Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market.
Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond.
Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canadas target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Feds objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target.
Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China.
Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last.
Source: Scotiabank Economics