Melissa Pereira and Monica Falco

US tariffs and the unpredictability of future trade arrangements are disrupting the Canadian economy. Growth in Canada is expected to remain modest, while inflation stays close to 2%.

The Canadian economic outlook is little changed since the October Report. Canada continues to adjust to a new trade landscape. Affected businesses are reconfiguring their trade and seeking new suppliers and markets. As this adjustment proceeds, capital will start being reallocated and some workers will shift into new roles. This adjustment will take time, and growth will be restrained through the transition.

Uncertainty remains high. The world is becoming more fragmented, and geopolitical risks are elevated. For Canada, the future of trade in North America is an important uncertainty.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2026-01-28/overview/