Impact of Mortgages changes
Impact of Mortgages changes.
Before I explain how all the changes had impacted consumers I believe it is important to clarify and explain those changes.
Previously, mortgages were divided into two major categories
1) High ratio mortgages- down payment was lower than 20%, borrower will be charged for mortgage insurance in case of default. This provided banks the option to offer good rates to borrowers with low down payments.
2) Low ratio mortgages- down payment was grater than 20%.
Mortgage insurance in Canada is backed by the federal government through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Insurance is sold by the CMHC and two private insurers, Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Company. This creates the federal government responsible to cover the cost of 100 per cent of an insured mortgage in the event of a default.
Oct- Nov, 2016
In consequence, Mortgages are now being differentiated as Insured and Non- Insured.
Insured: (by Federal Mortgage Insurance)
High ratio owner occupied Only.
Borrowers need to qualify at benchmark of 4.64%
Maximum Amortization of 25 years
Purchases under $ 1 Million dollars
Non-Insured: (by Federal Mortgage Insurance)
Income properties purchases and refinances with less than 20% down payment.
Low ratio mortgages
Borrowers qualify under contract rate not stress test
Amortization can exceed 25 years
Interest rate increase of 0.25 %, it will impact services associated with mortgages, such as lines of credits and bank services associated with prime rates.
All these changes were established by the Liberal Government to freeze housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver area mostly, avoid consumers going into mortgages that cannot be afforded, and subsidized the low prices on petroleum.
It has been almost 10 months that these changes had been applied and it did not help to stop prices to sky rocket or consumers to not be in debt. On the other hand, now interest rate increased which it was most likely to happen and it complicates even more the financial situation of most home owners.
I read many articles this past week, but I was surprised by one in which it was trying to give consumers the idea that a small interest increase it wasnt such a big impact on mortgages on a monthly basis. It is very unreal to believe that interest rates are not going to go up even more. This will complicate the financial situation of average Canadians to access a mortgage in the future or keep the current one. It is going to become harder to pay off debts because interest rates and living expenses are getting more expensive.
Investors cannot offer affordable rentals because the cost for a mortgage for them have changed. Many lenders do not offer investment products due to the additional cost of having to buy private insurance in consequence of the changes implemented by the Government. This as well increases the cost of living for Canadians and makes it even harder to save for a purchase of a home.
All these changes intend to solve an issue but they create new ones even more complex to resolve.
A fitting example is the increase on minimum wage as is planned for 2019 of $ 15.00; this will bring a lot of consequences, prices are going to go up in general items because businesses are going to have to recap those amounts, small businesses are not going to be able to have employees because of the cost increase, therefore less demand for workers.
All these changes intend to patch or give quick solution to most concerns on society.
Realistically, it has been a wrong move from the government. It affected first time buyers, middle class families, private banks (some of them are out of business because they cannot compete with prices, therefore less options for borrowers); most of these individuals do not contribute to have prices for over 1 million dollars.
As a mortgage professional, I mostly see the debate of buyers that do want to have an affordable mortgage but in their areas are not possible. I try to advice to move further from the city, but they encounter the lack of employment opportunities on those border cities.
The real problem is that big cities such as Toronto and Vancouver are collapsing, employers need to start moving away from the big cities to be able to make surrounding cities prosper as well. There are a lot of commuters and consequently creates traffic problems, big monthly expenses on gas, car maintenance and so on. Because all the changes rents are more expensive and consumers are not able to save money for a down payment.
I believe some changes are good but they cannot be applied to all Canada, they need to be enforced for buyers on the big cities. We need opportunities for first time buyers, buying a home is slowly becoming a luxury and we all have the right to own our home.
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Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.
The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise.
On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton.
From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%).
Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year.
Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market.
Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond.
Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canadas target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Feds objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target.
Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China.
Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last.
Source: Scotiabank Economics