Soapboxes, Popcorn and Credit Cards. Oh My!
By my count, on a random Thursday night, as I have a glass of wine and some microwave popcorn for supper, there have been about 9 sweeping regulatory changes in the Canadian mortgage market since 2007.
Lets go back to 2007.
At that time, I was in love forever, I wore a size 26 pair of jeans and my Canadian Blue Chips were pulling in a lazy 15% return, all while I was trying to figure out what was going on in Lost. (What exactly was the black smoke monster? Did they ever really ever circle back to that?) Speaking of smoke, all of this went up in it.
That same year, I left my cush bank gig for the rock n roll lifestyle of a mortgage broker because I was promised endless sandwiches and the ability to cuss whenever I wanted. And here I am. Exactly 10 years later. Truly, the sandwiches and profanity are the only constants in this market. Everything else is flipped and reversed.
There are probably a couple of changes in how your mortgage is qualified that we should address. So, let me just lay this out for you:
Firstly....you kind of need a paper trail and reasonable track record of the income that you earn over a legit period of time that would lead someone to the logical conclusion that you can afford a payment on a big thing like a whole entire house.
I knowbanks are assholes. But lets just devils advocate this one.
If you have a salary or guaranteed base hours and that can be confirmed by your employer, we can use that to determine how much of a mortgage payment you can afford by the banks guidelines. If you have any fluctuating income, are self-employed or working on a contract basis, youre going to need to show a two-year track record of how thats been playing out. Or, youre going to need to pony up a more sizable down payment to mitigate the possibility of a dip in your earnings.
Does that really seem so unreasonable? Youre buying a WHOLE ENTIRE HOUSE!
Second...ifyou have credit card debt, or lines of credit which are readvancible*, we are going to assign, on your mortgage application, a completely fictitious, super-high payment that you dont contractually, morally or reasonably ever have to pay and will effect the price of the home the banks determine that you can afford by their guidelines. (And when I say super-high, I mean James Franco super-high.) Oh and by the way, youre completely screwing your credit!
*Readvancible means that its not a loan that you would make set payments on over a predetermined amount of time until its paid. Rather, its a credit limit, like a credit card or line of credit.
And I have a serious beef on this point.
When it comes to your credit card debt and how its required to be appropriated on your mortgage application, the banks blame the feds who regulate the banks. The feds wag their fingers at the consumers who misuse the credit limits. The credit limits are glad-handed by the banks to anyone with a pulse. The banks blame the feds and the feds blame us and the banks blame
You get where this is going, right? To Bullshitsville! Thats where.
Take control. If you are holding credit card debt or balances on lines of credit, you are putting undue pressure on your capacity to carry a mortgage. You may have some interest-only, easy-street, payment arrangement written in blood on your 20% annual interest contract. However, the banks are assigning a very large, made up payment for the purpose of qualifying a mortgage. (The same bank that said Hey! Here! Have this interest-only, easy-street credit card! Youve made it, Cuz! Drinks for everyone!) And then you cant qualify for your mortgage.
This is a thing. Its happening.
And not to kick you while youre down but if you are holding more than 50% balance on your credit card, in relation to the overall credit limit, your credit score is abysmal. This is true. Call your handy dandy mortgage broker. We see credit reports by the dozen, on the daily. And we can help. We have access to the whole puppetshow. We know where all the strings are. And when I say we, I actually mean more specifically me. I can help. Its pretty much my lifes work.
On a side note, its been 10 years for me as a mortgage broker this month. This is a tough industry. So, I think that makes me officially biker-gang badass. And Im celebrating with wine and microwave popcorn.
Like a black smoke baller.
Almost no annual growth for national HPI
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.5% over the last 12 months, the smallest gain since November 2009. Moreover, the fact that monthly gains are reported for May and June does not mean that the market recently turned the corner. These two months typically register the strongest growth rates in a year. Indeed, the two latest rises were among the weakest in history for months of May and June. If seasonally adjusted, the national HPI would been down in both months this year. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI was dragged down by 12-month home price declines in Western Canada metropolitan areas (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg) and a tiny increase in Victoria. In Central Canada and in the East, home price growth ranges from decent to strong (left chart). This is consistent with the state of home resale markets. For example, the Vancouver market turned favorable to buyers at the end of last year, while the Toronto market remained balanced and Montreal’s market has never been this tight since 2005. That being said, a rebound in home sales recently occurred in Canada which was also felt in the largest Western metropolitan areas. This should help limit home-price deflation in these areas.
The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 0.8% in June, a second gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise.
On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Winnipeg (0.1%), Quebec City (0.3%), Montreal (0.8%), Toronto (1.3%), Halifax (1.5%), Hamilton (+1.6%), Victoria (+2.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.2%). The index was down in Calgary (-0.1%) and Vancouver (-0.3%), and flat in Edmonton.
From June 2018 to June 2019, the Composite index rose 0.5%, the smallest 12-month gain in ten years. The HPI declined in Vancouver (-4.9%), Calgary (-3.8%), Edmonton (-2.6%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%). It was up in Victoria (0.3%), Quebec City (1.5%), Halifax (2.7%), Toronto (2.8%), Hamilton (4.8%), Montreal (5.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (6.3%).
Source: National Bank Financial Markets; Marc Pinsonneault
NORTHERN STAR (FOR NOW...)
In contrast to the US, Canadian growth is accelerating sharply going into the second quarter, following a solid gain in domestic demand to start the year.
Fast, and accelerating, population growth, and remarkably strong employment growth are providing a solid underpinning to consumer spending and the housing market.
Positive export data suggest that the ongoing strength in domestic demand will be buttressed by net exports in the second quarter, and possibly beyond.
Canadian inflation is at the Bank of Canadas target, in sharp contrast to the US, where it has moved away from the Feds objective. This gives the BoC room to keep rates on hold if inflation remains on target.
Downside risks remain important and are all linked to US-centric developments, with worries about US trade policy ongoing despite the pause with China.
Recent Canadian developments stand in sharp contrast to events in much of the rest of the world. Whereas US growth is clearly decelerating, Canadian growth is on an upswing, with recent indicators pointing to a very sharp rebound from a somewhat sluggish start to the year. Canadians appear to be, for the time being, largely insulated from the broader malaise facing the global economy as consumer and business confidence has improved sharply in recent quarters, owing to strong sales and job creation. While there are a number of factors suggesting that the growth rebound observed will persist through 2020, there is a risk that a divergence between Canadian and US outcomes may not last.
Source: Scotiabank Economics