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Peter Rostocki
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BLOG / NEWS Updates
NBC: Residential market remains at a standstill in April amid trade uncertainty
Home sales remained relatively unchanged (-0.1%) from March to April following four monthly contractions. As a result, the number of transactions was 19% below the level in November last year, reversing last years rebound following the central banks interest rate cuts, and roughly in line with the depreciated level of sales observed in 2022. Sales increased in 6 of the countrys 10 provinces: New Brunswick (+5.2%), Manitoba (+3.3%), Quebec (+2.0%), Newfoundland (+1.9%), Nova Scotia (+1.8%), and Ontario (+1.1%). On the other hand, sales declined in B.C. (-2.3%), Alberta (-3.4%), Saskatchewan (-6.3%), and P.E.I. (-6.5%). There is no doubt that the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S. has weighed on consumer confidence and the housing market across the country, with potential buyers waiting for more economic visibility before acting.
On the supply side, new listings decreased 1.0% from March to April. Combined with the low level of sales, active listings increased by 1.9% during the month, the fourth monthly advance in a row despite still elevated cancelled listings in April. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the fifth consecutive month, edging up from 5.0 in March to 5.1 in April, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding Covid). Meanwhile, market conditions loosened slightly during the month but remained relatively balanced compared to the historical average. This balanced market condition at the national level is explained by particularly soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while market conditions in every other province continue to indicate a favourable to sellers market. These looser market conditions have had an impact on prices, with the MLS Home Price Index declining by 1.2% month-over-month and by 3.6% year-over-year.
On an annual basis, home sales dropped by 9.8% compared to April 2024, thus reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2009. Sales were down in four of the ten provinces: Ontario (- 20.2%), B.C. (-14.6%), Alberta (-11.7%), and Saskatchewan (-10.6%). On the other hand, the sharpest increases were observed in Quebec (+10.0%), Newfoundland (+7.4%), and Manitoba (+6.6%). For the first four months of 2025, cumulative home sales were down 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf
Statistic Canada: Building permits, March 2025
In March, the total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased by $549.4 million (-4.1%) to $12.9 billion. The decrease was led by the non-residential sector (-$716.3 million), and it was tempered by the residential sector (+$166.9 million).
On a constant dollar basis (2017=100), the total value of building permits issued in March decreased 5.1% from the previous month and was up 11.1% on a year-over-year basis.
Single-family permits slow residential sector growth
Residential construction intentions in Canada increased $166.9 million (+2.0%) in March to reach $8.7 billion. A gain in the multi-family component (+$322.5 million to $5.9 billion) was partially offset by a decline in the single-family component (-$155.6 million to $2.8 billion).
The rise in the multi-family component in March was particularly strong in British Columbia (+$397.8 million), driven by the Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA) (+$652.3 million).
Meanwhile, the single-family component decrease was primarily observed in Ontario (-$185.7 million) and was supported by Quebec (-$26.0 million).
Overall, 22,800 multi-family dwellings and 4,400 single-family dwellings were authorized for construction in March, representing a 4.6% increase from the previous month.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250514/dq250514a-eng.htm
Bank of Canada: Financial Stability Report—2025
A stable and efficient financial system is essential for sustaining economic growth and raising standards of living. In the Financial Stability Report, the Bank of Canada assesses the resilience of the Canadian financial system and focuses on key risks that could undermine its stability. Ultimately, financial stability benefits all Canadians.
Key takeaways
Canadas financial system is resilient. Overall, households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial intermediaries successfully weathered the pandemic, a period of elevated inflation, and sharp increases in interest rates.
Over the past 12 months, Canadian households have been carrying, on average, less debt relative to their income, and insolvency filings by businesses have dropped significantly. But there are pockets of financial stress. The economic impacts of the pandemic, as well as elevated housing prices due to persistent imbalances in the housing market, have led to higher levels of debt for some households and businesses. This has made them more vulnerable to financial shocks.
Because Canadian households and businesses have remained resilient overall, financial institutions have not come under stress. Canadian banks have generally maintained elevated capital buffers and have increased provisions for credit losses. Liquidity levels have remained high, and access to funding has continued to be strong.
Recently, large and abrupt shifts in the direction of US trade policy have led to some bouts of extreme market volatility, including in the normally low-risk market for US Treasuries. This volatility tested the resilience of market participantsparticularly non-bank financial intermediaries deploying arbitrage strategies in the US Treasury market.
The trade war currently threatens the Canadian economy and poses risks to financial stability. Near-term unpredictability of US trade and economic policy could cause further market volatility and a sharp repricing in assets, leading to strains on liquidity. In extreme circumstances, market volatility could turn into market dysfunction.
In the medium to long term, a prolonged global trade war would have severe economic consequences. It would reduce economic growth and increase unemployment. Some households and businesses would be unable to continue making debt payments. If household and business credit defaults were to occur on a large scale, banks could see greater losses than they have provisioned for. This could lead them to pull back on lending, potentially exacerbating economic and financial stress.
The Bank of Canada is watching developments closely and remains in regular contact with financial system participants and with other financial authorities in Canada and globally. A stable and resilient financial systemone that absorbs shocks and does not amplify themcan help the economy through periods of turbulence.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/
