Lowest Interest Rates
You know the old saying You get what you pay for? Well it is so true in the mortgage industry as well. Those ads you see promoting 60 second mortgage approvals are not worth a damn and some of the low, low interest rates being promoted come with some pretty tight hand cuffs. Life can throw at us some pretty big curves and I firmly believe that you need to build as much flexibility into your financial plan as possible. Not all mortgages are equal, while you might get a very low interest rate out of the gate how many thousands of dollars will it cost you down the road. You need an advocate in todays mortgage market, dont go it alone. Pam Nierlich
Canada: Household Credit Growth Continues To Climb in September
CANADIANS BORROWING HAND OVER FIST
Total Canadian household credit growth continued to accelerate in September, reaching a pace last seen in mid-2018. Despite a slight deceleration from the previous month to 4.3% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (m/m saar), trend growth remains at elevated levels. Both mortgage and consumer credit growth contributed to the 68 bps slowdown from the prior month (46 bps and 22 bps, respectively), but borrowing conditions remain favourable overall with trend growth still in strongly positive territory.
RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE CREDIT EXPANSION CONTINUES ITS ASCENT
Residential mortgage credit growth continued on its upward trajectory in September supported by favourable borrowing conditions and strong labour markets. Mortgage loan growth accelerated by 4.9% m/m saar in September, pushing the year-on-year trend growth rate to 4.2% y/ythe fastest pace since mid-2018, marking a well-pronounced recovery in the mortgage-borrowing market.
Canadas real estate market looks to be rebounding following a turbulent couple of years due to various policy announcements from 2017 to 2018 designed to cool the market. Mortgage borrowing has picked up through the second half of 2019 with the uptick in demand following a reduction in the mortgage qualifying rate in July and a decline in 5-year mortgage rates. With the Bank of Canada under pressure to continue to provide a stimulative environment following sustained levels of uncertainty, residential mortgage credit growth is expected to remain supported in the foreseeable-future.
Strength in Canadian labour markets has also been conducive to a favourable borrowing environment. Septembers surge in job gains contributed to a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5%.
National house price index rises again in August
The national HPI has grown at a below-inflation rate of 0.6% over the last 12 months. However, the weakness is not regionally broad-based. The national HPI has been depressed by 12 consecutive months without a rise in Vancouvers index, which dropped a cumulative 6.6%. Other Western metropolitan areas (Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg) also contributed to slow the national HPI. At the opposite, annual growth has been decent in most of the regions located in the central and eastern part of the country. That being said, home sales in August were up 55% from March in Vancouver, where market conditions went from favorable to buyers to balanced. Over that period, home sales rose 19% in Calgary and 12% in Edmonton. These improvements, if sustained, will sooner or later help limit home-price deflation in this region.
The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM increased 0.4% in August, a fourth gain in a row after an eight-month string without a rise.
On a monthly basis, the index rose in 8 of the 11 markets covered: Victoria (+0.2%), Calgary (+0.6%), Hamilton (0.7%), Winnipeg (0.7%), Toronto (+0.8%), Montreal (1.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.7%) and Halifax (1.8%). The index was down in Vancouver (-0.8%), Quebec City (-0.4%) and Edmonton (-0.1%).
From August 2018 to August 2019, the Composite index rose 0.6%. Over the period, the HPI declined in Vancouver (-6.6%), Edmonton (-3.1%), Calgary (-2.3%). It was marginally up in Quebec City (0.1%), Victoria (0.7%) and Winnipeg (1.1%). It grew more convincingly in Toronto (+3.8%), Hamilton (+4.4%), Halifax (5.5%), Montreal (+5.7%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+6.4%).
Source: National Bank, Marc Pinsonneault