Samiddha Aryasinghe

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly percent and the deposit rate is percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with activity bouncing back as countries lift containment measures. The Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by a protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support. The pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolution of social distancing measures required to contain its spread. The rebound in the United States has been stronger than expected, while economic performance among emerging markets has been more mixed. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative. Although prices for some commodities have firmed, oil prices remain weak. In Canada, real GDP fell by 11.5 percent (39 percent annualized) in the second quarter, resulting in a decline of just over 13 percent in the first half of the year, largely in line with the Banks July MPR central scenario. All components of aggregate demand weakened, as expected.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales and new listings continued to rebound in July 2020, with new listings hitting their highest level on record for the month of July, while sales posted the highest level of any month in history. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems rebounded by a further 26% in July 2020, raising them to the highest monthly level ever recorded. For the third month in a row, transactions were up on a m-o-m basis across the country. Among Canadas largest markets, sales rose by 49.5% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 43.9% in Greater Vancouver, 39.1% in Montreal, 36.6% in the Fraser Valley, 31.8% in Hamilton-Burlington, 28.7% in Ottawa, 16.9% in London and St. Thomas, 15.7% in Calgary, 12.1% in Winnipeg, 9.7% in Edmonton and 5.4% in Quebec City. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 30.5% y-o-y gain in July. The 62,355 transactions recorded in July 2020 marked the highest monthly sales figure on record going back more than 40 years.