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Scotiabank: Canadian Home Sales (April 2025): Housing News Flash
CANADA HOUSING MARKET: TRADE UNCERTAINTY CLOUDING THE INCOME OUTLOOK AND REDUCES HOUSING DEMAND
From March to April national sales were essentially unchanged while new listings declined, leading to a marginal rise in the sales-to-new listings ratio over this period. Despite the uptick for this indicator in April, market conditions have significantly eased since the beginning of this year as reflected by the trend decline in this indicator and the rise in the months of inventory almost to its pre-pandemic average.
National housing sales stayed relatively stable from March to April, edging down marginally (-0.1%), almost halting their constant decline since November 2024 (with a cumulative drop of 19.2%), the time when the upcoming U.S. administration made clear that imports from Canada and other countries would be slapped with steep tariffs and subsequently followed through with this stated intention. In April, sales were near 18% below their 2015-2024 period average level. National sales were -9.8% lower in April than their level in the same month of 2024.
New listings declined -1.0% nationally from March to April but are still at relatively high historical levels, exceeding their 2015-2024 period average by about 7.2%. They increased 1.2% from the same month in 2024.
Despite the modest uptick in the sales-to-new listings ratio from March to Aprilfrom 46.4 to 46.8%this indicator has been trending towards the estimated threshold for buyers favourable conditions since November of last year. Indeed, this indicator has eased considerably since the Bank of Canada started hiking its policy rate in March 2022 as sales trended down at a faster pace (a -38.3% cumulative decline since February 2022) than new listings (-5.7%).
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.may-15--2025.html
CREA: Declines in Canadian Home Sales Take a Pause in April Despite Ongoing Tariff Pressures
The number of sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems was unchanged (-0.1%) between March and April 2025, marking a pause in the trend of declining activity since the beginning of the year.
Demand is currently hovering around levels seen during the second half of 2022, and the first and third quarters of 2023.
At this point, the 2025 Canadian housing story would best be described as a return to the quiet markets weve experienced since 2022, with tariff uncertainty taking the place of high interest rates in keeping buyers on the sidelines, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Given the increasing potential for a rough economic patch ahead, the risk going forward will be if an average number of people trying to sell their homes turns into a large number of people who have to sell their homes, and thats something we have not seen in decades.
April Highlights:
National home sales were unchanged (-0.1%) month-over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 9.8% below April 2024.
The number of newly listed properties fell 1% on a month-over-month basis.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) declined 1.2% month-over-month and was down 3.6% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 3.9% on a year-over-year basis.
https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/declines-in-canadian-home-sales-take-a-pause-in-april-despite-ongoing-tariff-pressures/
NBC: Residential market remains at a standstill in April amid trade uncertainty
Home sales remained relatively unchanged (-0.1%) from March to April following four monthly contractions. As a result, the number of transactions was 19% below the level in November last year, reversing last years rebound following the central banks interest rate cuts, and roughly in line with the depreciated level of sales observed in 2022. Sales increased in 6 of the countrys 10 provinces: New Brunswick (+5.2%), Manitoba (+3.3%), Quebec (+2.0%), Newfoundland (+1.9%), Nova Scotia (+1.8%), and Ontario (+1.1%). On the other hand, sales declined in B.C. (-2.3%), Alberta (-3.4%), Saskatchewan (-6.3%), and P.E.I. (-6.5%). There is no doubt that the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S. has weighed on consumer confidence and the housing market across the country, with potential buyers waiting for more economic visibility before acting.
On the supply side, new listings decreased 1.0% from March to April. Combined with the low level of sales, active listings increased by 1.9% during the month, the fourth monthly advance in a row despite still elevated cancelled listings in April. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased for the fifth consecutive month, edging up from 5.0 in March to 5.1 in April, its highest level since April 2019 (excluding Covid). Meanwhile, market conditions loosened slightly during the month but remained relatively balanced compared to the historical average. This balanced market condition at the national level is explained by particularly soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while market conditions in every other province continue to indicate a favourable to sellers market. These looser market conditions have had an impact on prices, with the MLS Home Price Index declining by 1.2% month-over-month and by 3.6% year-over-year.
On an annual basis, home sales dropped by 9.8% compared to April 2024, thus reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2009. Sales were down in four of the ten provinces: Ontario (- 20.2%), B.C. (-14.6%), Alberta (-11.7%), and Saskatchewan (-10.6%). On the other hand, the sharpest increases were observed in Quebec (+10.0%), Newfoundland (+7.4%), and Manitoba (+6.6%). For the first four months of 2025, cumulative home sales were down 7.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf
