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Keith Baker and Jacqueline Zerbe

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CMHC Housing Market Outlook - Spring 2023

From CMHC Key highlights from the 2023 release We expect house prices and supply in Canada to decrease between 2022 2023. Price declines are expected to end sometime in 2023 before increasing for the remainder of the forecast period. Our analysis forecasts a significant drop in housing starts in 2023 and we can see some recovery starting in 2023 to 2024 and onward. Rental affordability is also set to decline due to demand outstripping supply, especially in Vancouver and Toronto. Prairie provinces expect more positive housing market conditions due to interprovincial migration and affordable homeownership. Ontario, British Columbia and Qubec will see significant drops in housing starts compared to other regions. The Atlantic regions economy remains stable and moderate relative to other regions. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market-outlook/2023/housing-market-outlook-spring-2023-en.pdf?rev=5c29bc91-2310-435f-b2c9-b801866d0ede

CMHC Housing Supply Report

Highlights from the April 2023 Housing Supply Report: Growth in residential construction was mixed across Canadas 6 largest census metropolitan areas in 2022. Current new home inventories are at historic lows even though housing starts were strong during the pandemic. Housing starts increased in Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa. Starts were stable in Vancouver and decreased in Montral. New research completed by the University of British Columbia using CMHC data shows that most housing starts were built in low-amenity neighbourhoods. Apartments, however, tend to be in high-amenity areas . As interest rates increased, homebuyer purchasing power dropped. Prices decreased slightly in most markets. Apartment construction both purpose-built rental and condominiums continued to grow. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-supply-report/housing-supply-report-2023-04-en.pdf?rev=5558faea-840d-4a27-a9a3-c49e421abd1a

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