BrokerBase QA

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations in 2022 and 2023.

With interest rates on the rise, home sales have continued to cool. In some parts of the country, home prices have fallen from their peaks reached earlier this year, are flat in some regions, and are still climbing in others. The issue of not enough homes for sale has not gone away.

Some 532,545 properties are forecast to trade hands via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2022, a decline of 20% from the 2021 annual record. The downward revision from CREA’s June forecast was mostly the result of a downward revision to sales activity in Ontario, along with smaller revisions in B.C., Alberta and Quebec. The national average home price is forecast to rise by 4.7% on an annual basis to $720,255 in 2022. That said, much of that increase reflects how high prices were to start the year. Annual price gains are forecast to be largest in Quebec and the Maritimes.

National home sales are forecast to edge back a further 2.3% to 520,156 units in 2023. The national average home price is forecast to slide mostly sideways (+0.2%) from 2022 to 2023 at around 722,000.

From National Bank of Canada

In addition to recording a fourth consecutive monthly decline on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index experienced its largest contraction ever in a single month (-2.1%) due to rapidly rising interest rates and a slowing resale market. This historic drop broke the previous record of -1.3% recorded in July 2010. August's data were also unique in that the declines extended to almost all the 31 cities covered by the index, except for the three CMAs located in Alberta (Calgary, Edmonton and Lethbridge), which is unprecedented. The reason for these isolated increases is obviously the high price of energy and many commodities that drive the economy in this province. Since its peak in May 2022, the composite index has already fallen 4.1%, led by significant declines in Hamilton (-10.5%). Halifax (-8.7%) and Toronto (-8.3%). Significant price declines were also observed in several cities not included in the composite index, including Abbotsford-Mission and many cities in the Golden Horseshoe (Brantford, Oshawa, Barrie, Kitchener, Guelph, and Peterborough). It should be noted, however, that the significant declines in these cities follow dramatic price increases since the start of the pandemic. As the Bank of Canada continues to raise its policy rate into restrictive territory, we expect the composite index to decline from its peak reached earlier this year by 10%-15% by the end of 2023. This assumes a policy rate that tops out below 4.0% and a Bank of Canada that begins to lower interest rates in the second half of 2023.

From the National Bank of Canada

Declining transactions in the resale market and rising interest rates continue to weigh on property prices, with the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index falling 0.2% from June to July after seasonal adjustments. This is the first monthly decline since the one seen at the beginning of the pandemic in June 2020. Using the unsmoothed seasonally adjusted index, which is more sensitive to market fluctuations, the decline is even more pronounced, with property prices falling 1.4% from June to July. Moreover, price decreases continue to be widespread across the country. In fact, for all 32 markets where the seasonally adjusted unsmoothed index was available in July, 58% experienced a decline during the month, the same proportion as observed in June, but much higher than those recorded since the beginning of the year. You have to go back to May 2020, at the very beginning of the pandemic when uncertainty was at its peak, to find such a large proportion of markets down. While the Bank of Canada has indicated that it will continue to raise its policy rate and that transactions in the real estate market should continue to decline, we anticipate that the composite index should decrease by 10% by the end of 2023.

From the National Bank of Canada

On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales fell 5.3% from June to July, bringing the level of sales 12.8% below its 10-year average. This was the fifth consecutive decline for this indicator, with sales down a cumulative 31.1% between February and July. The slowdown was broad- based, with the number of transactions declining in three-quarters of the markets covered. We expect the current moderation in sales to continue going forward as the Bank of Canada is expected to raise its overnight rate further in September. The rapid rise in interest rates by the central bank is certainly having a psychological effect on buyers who are waiting to see how high rates will stabilize before taking action.

Rising interest rates also seem to be having an effect on sellers who are postponing their decision to sell to a later date. Indeed, new listings declined 5.3% between June and July. Overall, the number of months of inventory rose from 3.1 to 3.4 months in July, the highest level in two years. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio, market conditions loosened in every province during the month, and the housing market in the country as a whole is now on the verged of indicating a balanced market. Six provinces out of 10 are now in balanced territory: B.C., Saskatchewan, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and P.E. (the latter having switched this month). The others continued to indicate market conditions favourable to sellers mainly due to lack of supply.

On a year-over-year basis, home sales were down 29.3% compared to the second-strongest month of July in history last year. For the first seven months of 2022, cumulative sales were down 20.3% compared to the same period in 2021.

Housing starts in Canada decreased for the first time in three months, dropping 8.3K in June to 273.8K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), in line with consensus expectations calling for a 274K print. With high commodity prices, labour shortages, and ongoing supply chain issues, this moderation in housing starts was expected and should continue in the coming months. However, with building permits remaining high and housing supply still tight, this moderation should stabilize at levels that remain strong on a historical basis.

From National Bank of Canada

• There is a great deal of concern regarding the vulnerability of Canadian households not only to inflation shock but also to sharp interest rate hikes.
• For heavily indebted households, the bill could prove hefty. Those that contracted mortgages 4.Sx their gross income could see their monthly payments increase by $187 to $281 from 2022 to 2024 and absorb as much as 2.6% to 4.0% of their net income.
• At the macroeconomic level, however, the story is far different given the high proportion of properties without mortgages. By our calculations, the payment shock related to servicing the accumulated debt will represent 0.65% of disposable income over the next three years. The amount is significant but manageable in that it alone will not suffice to pull the economy into a recession.