Amir Shakir

Summary

• Home sales in Canada rose by 0.5 % from May to June, the third increase in a row following five months of decline.
• New listings decreased by 1.3% from May to June, following a 0.9% decrease the previous month.
• Active listings increased by 0.5% in June, the second growth in three months.
• The number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales ratio) remained unchanged at 4.8 during the month, following the first decline for this indicator since October 2025 in May.
• Market conditions tightened in June in many provinces but remained balanced at the national level, which largely reflects conditions in Ontario and B.C. that remain soft, while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers.
• Housing starts decreased by 14.1K from 253.1K in May to 239.0K in June (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a print below the consensus calling for 255.0K. The pullback was concentrated in urban areas (-13.3K to 227.8K), although rural starts also edged lower (-0.8K to 11.1K). Within urban areas, the multi-unit and other segment accounted for most of the decline (-10.2K to 189.9K), while single-detached starts also decreased (-3.1K to 37.9K). Among the major CMAs, starts rose in Vancouver (+4.2K to 23.8K), but declined sharply in Toronto (-12.4K to 25.4K) and more moderately in Calgary (-3.9K to 28.1K) and Montreal (-1.9K to 35.4K)
• The Teranet–National Bank Composite National House Price Index^TM declined by 0.4% from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Six of the eleven CMAs included in the index posted declines during the month: Vancouver (-1.4%), Victoria (-1.2%), Calgary (-0.8%), Edmonton (-0.8%), Winnipeg (-0.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.5%), and Toronto (-0.3%). Conversely, prices rose in Hamilton (+3.2%), Quebec City (+0.7%), and Halifax (+0.6%), while they remained stable in Montreal.

Housing sales (in units) increased nationally for a third consecutive month in June while new listings declined, thereby tightening market conditions modestly from May to June according to the sales-to-new listings ratio. The national (all-markets) MLS HPI stayed flat from May to June; the first time it did not post a monthly decline since February 2025.

National housing (unit) sales increased 0.5% (sa) from May to June, a third consecutive monthly rise. Sales rose by a cumulative 7% (from sa figures) over this 3-month period but, in June 2026, were still 12% (sa) below their November 2024 level, as global trade tensions started rising shortly after the U.S. elections. From May to June, nearly 60% of the local markets we track posted a rise in their sales, with the strongest ones observed for Sudbury (21.2%), Peterborough (14.8%) and Kingston (13.1%).

National new listings declined by 1.3% (sa) from May to June, still following their (mild) downward trend that started in September 2025. Sharpest monthly declines in this indicator were observed for St. John’s (NL; -17.5%), Sudbury (-10.3%) and Victoria (-8.5%). New listings declined by 1.4% (nsa) over the 12-month period ending with June 2026.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened further from May to June, edging up 0.9 percentage point to 50.2%, which is still in the lower half of our estimated range for balanced conditions, where it had been trending since Spring 2022. Since the same month in 2025, this ratio tightened by 1 percentage point, but with only about 45% of tracked market also showing a tightening.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been conducting its annual Mortgage Consumer Survey since 1999 with a one-year exception during the pandemic. The survey brings valuable insights on mortgage consumers’ thoughts, attitudes and behaviours regarding homeownership and the process of obtaining a mortgage.

This year, a total of 4,112 mortgage consumers were surveyed between January 7 and February 1, 2026. The interviews were conducted in both English and French, and included Canadians aged 18 or over in every region of the country who:

• are the prime decision makers in their households; and,
• had undertaken a mortgage transaction in the past 18 months.

Key highlights

1. Respondents continue to be confident about their purchase being a good long-term investment, though fewer believe the value of their home will increase over the next 12 months compared to last year.
2. It took homebuyers an average of 4.4 years to save for a down payment, mainly driven by first-time homebuyers taking longer at 4.7 year.
3. Savings and equity from previous home continue to be the main components of down payments. However, 23% of homebuyers (13% of repeat buyers and 27% of first-time homebuyers) surveyed said they received a financial gift to contribute to their down payment. 
4. There was a significant decrease in mortgage consumers who were concerned about defaulting on their payments, down to 39% from 53% in 2025.
5. Renewers were more likely (35%) to say they experienced increased financial pressure due to changes in interest rates, with their mortgage payments increasing on average by $375 a month.
6. Mortgage consumers are leveraging the use of AI (16% of those who did online research) to help with their information gathering