Matthew Shaw-Ward

May 2026: What Happened and What It Means for Ontario Homeowners

Fixed rates went up — again

Bond yields hit their highest point of 2026 in May (5-year GoC yield reached 3.3%), driven by a 2.8% April inflation reading and rising oil prices. Fixed mortgage rates rose roughly 25–40 basis points. The overnight rate and your mortgage rate are not the same thing.

BoC on hold at 2.25%

The Bank held for the fourth consecutive time. Analysts now expect the next move may be a hike, not a cut, if inflation stays elevated.

Mortgage confidence improving — but renewal pressure is real

CMHC's 2026 Consumer Survey: share of Canadians worried about payments dropped from 53% to 39%. But 35% of people who renewed in the past year saw payments rise an average of $375/month. 52% of all Canadian mortgages renew by end of 2027.

Northern Ontario: only region in Ontario with year-over-year price growth

Average home price $402,042, up 2.4% YoY. Every other region posted annual declines.

Ontario prices down 6.5% province-wide

Provincial benchmark: $749,200. Active listings at their highest spring level in over a decade.

Ontario HST rebate on new builds — still available

Up to $130,000 back. Homes under $1M, purchase agreement signed before March 31, 2027.