Matthew Shaw-Ward

May 2026: What Happened and What It Means for Ontario Homeowners

Fixed rates went up — again

Bond yields hit their highest point of 2026 in May (5-year GoC yield reached 3.3%), driven by a 2.8% April inflation reading and rising oil prices. Fixed mortgage rates rose roughly 25–40 basis points. The overnight rate and your mortgage rate are not the same thing.

BoC on hold at 2.25%

The Bank held for the fourth consecutive time. Analysts now expect the next move may be a hike, not a cut, if inflation stays elevated.

Mortgage confidence improving — but renewal pressure is real

CMHC's 2026 Consumer Survey: share of Canadians worried about payments dropped from 53% to 39%. But 35% of people who renewed in the past year saw payments rise an average of $375/month. 52% of all Canadian mortgages renew by end of 2027.

Northern Ontario: only region in Ontario with year-over-year price growth

Average home price $402,042, up 2.4% YoY. Every other region posted annual declines.

Ontario prices down 6.5% province-wide

Provincial benchmark: $749,200. Active listings at their highest spring level in over a decade.

Ontario HST rebate on new builds — still available

Up to $130,000 back. Homes under $1M, purchase agreement signed before March 31, 2027.

Before I became a mortgage agent, I spent 8 years managing a law firm.

Not just any law firm. One that specialized in family law, wills and estates, and real estate.

That means I've sat at the closing table on hundreds of transactions. I've watched what happens when a marriage ends and both parties need somewhere to live. I've seen families navigate estate sales under pressure, beneficiaries trying to buy out siblings, executors dealing with properties no one planned for. I've read the documents, filed the paperwork, and seen every way a real estate transaction can go sideways before it ever reaches the closing date.

Before that, 5 years in financial services — learning how money moves, how risk is assessed, and how decisions made today affect people years down the road.

But I didn't start this career knowing nothing. I started it knowing what most mortgage agents learn only after years of practice: what your lawyer sees, what your financial advisor worries about, and what's actually at stake when someone is buying, refinancing, or rebuilding after a major life change.

That background is why I got into this. And it's what I bring to every conversation.

I'm Matthew Shaw-Ward, Mortgage Agent Level 1 serving Ontario. If you're buying a home, consolidating debt, going through a separation, or investing for your future — I understand more of the picture than most.

📲 myontariomortgages.ca

Matthew Shaw-Ward | Mortgage Agent Level 1 | Lic. M25002611 Verico The Mortgage Wellness Group Limited | Brokerage Lic. #11970