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BLOG / NEWS Updates
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%
The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.
Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Banks October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
Canadas economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility.
Canadas labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued.
CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last years GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/12/fad-press-release-2025-12-10/
CMHC: Framework for change: Productivity in housing construction
From CMHC
Housing affordability is challenging Canadians. To address this, CMHC has shown that we need to double housing starts over the next decade. Meeting this goal will require building smarter and faster, with governments and business working together. While governments can improve regulations, the residential construction industry will need to invest to improve its productivity. What are the current productivity challenges in building housing in Canada, and what solutions show the most promise?
Productivity measures how much output, such as housing, is produced for each hour of work. Increasing productivity isnt about working more hoursits about working smarter. This means investing in the latest tools and equipment, ensuring workers have top-notch skills. It also involves using innovative and effective management techniques and reorganizing businesses to take advantage of these improvements.
The productivity performance of the residential construction industry has been much weaker since the pandemic, contributing to the loss of housing affordability. The Centre for the Study of Living Standards estimates that lost productivity from 2019 to 2024 added $6 to $8 billion to housing construction costs in Canada. This accounts for up to 20% of the increase in new home prices. Boosting productivity in residential construction would also strengthen Canadas overall economic performance. In 2024, residential construction accounted for 4.2% of business-sector employment but only 3.3% of business-sector value added.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2025/framework-for-change-productivity-in-housing-construction
TD: Weather Disasters and the Insurance Market in Canada: An Emerging Crisis?
Canada has experienced around 300 catastrophic weather events since 1983, with both the frequency and cost of these disasters rising significantly in recent years.
Over 60% of total insured losses caused by weather disasters between 2008 and 2024 stemmed from damage to personal property.
Average insured personal property losses have nearly doubled in the past five years compared to previous years, putting significant pressure on Canadas home insurance sector for both insurers and households faced with rising home insurance rates.
The increase in home insurance costs was generally higher in areas that have experienced greater insured damages from weather disasters. As well, some highly-impacted areas also face rising deductibles or reduced coverage for certain perils like hail or floods.
Fiscally-constrained governments are also rethinking the level of financial assistance provided through disaster recovery programs to support communities recovering from uninsurable losses as costs of weather disasters rise.
Canada has had over 300 catastrophic weather events since 1983. These are currently defined as weather disasters that cause at least $30 million in insured losses, though lower thresholds were used prior to 2022. The average number of annual catastrophic events has increased over time as have insured losses associated with these events. Insured losses vary by province with Alberta accounting for the largest share of total insured losses between 1983 and 2024, followed by Ontario and Quebec. The three provinces are the only ones that have been hit by billion-dollar-plus catastrophic events so far, with Alberta alone having had five as of 2024.
More than 60% of insured losses from 2008 to 2024 were due to damage to personal property. In addition, the costs have increased substantially in recent years with insured damages to personal property during 2020-2024 being almost twice their level in the previous decade. Moreover, the insurance industry in Canada incurred underwriting losses in the personal property line of business in 2023 and 2024 as insured damages and operational expenses exceeded revenue earned from premiums.
These changes have contributed to rising home insurance premiums, especially in areas hardest hit by severe weather, with Alberta being the most notable example of the variation in insurance cost increases between more and less vulnerable areas. Additionally, high-risk areas face other adjustments to home insurance policies including higher deductibles for example, for hail coverage in areas that have experienced substantial damage from hailstorms. In worst case situations, insurance coverage is simply not available for certain perils such as overland flooding in areas of the country deemed most at risk of flooding. Meanwhile, as households that are most vulnerable to severe weather are feeling the squeeze from the private insurance market, government disaster recovery programs, which have historically acted as an insurer of last resort, are also beginning to restrict the level of support provided to impacted communities as these programs are also contending with rising costs of extreme weather.
https://economics.td.com/ca-extreme-weather-and-insurance

